Paxton and Talarico Clash as Texas Senate Ad Spending Nears $340 Million/ NEWSLOOKS/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are offering sharply different messages in a Texas Senate race approaching $340 million in advertising spending. Paxton is emphasizing loyalty to President Donald Trump and warnings about Democratic policies, while Talarico campaigns on affordability, corruption and bipartisan cooperation. Billionaire support has given Paxton a spending advantage, but Talarico’s appeal to independents and some Republicans has renewed Democratic hopes of a statewide breakthrough.
Quick Look
- Contrasting campaigns: Paxton warns of the consequences of Democratic control; Talarico emphasizes hope and common economic concerns.
- Expensive contest: Advertising spending is just under $340 million since the nominees secured their places.
- Trump’s endorsement: Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary with the president’s support.
- Musk’s contributions: Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund and $10 million to another pro-Paxton group.
- Crossover endorsement: Neil Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, endorsed Talarico.
- Republican strategy: Paxton is counting on party loyalty and turnout.
- Democratic challenge: Talarico must attract voters beyond his party to overcome Texas’ longstanding Republican advantage.
Deep Look
Texas Senate Race Offers Democrats Another Opening
Texas Democrats are approaching Election Day with renewed optimism—and memories of previous disappointments—as James Talarico challenges Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat.
The contest could help determine control of Congress during President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. It also tests whether Democrats can translate enthusiasm, fundraising and crossover support into a statewide victory.
“We’re going to shock the world when we take back Texas,” Talarico told supporters this week.
Paxton delivered a different message at his own rally hours later.
“If we lose Texas, we lose America.”
Paxton Frames Election as a Choice Between Competing Americas
Paxton has presented the race as a consequential ideological divide, comparing it to water falling on opposite sides of the Continental Divide and flowing toward different oceans.
“They end up 3,000 miles apart. That’s what our elections are like now,” he told supporters near the U.S.-Mexico border. “It’s the America our founders gave us versus something they wouldn’t recognize.”
He argues that Talarico’s positions are too liberal for Texas.
A vote for his opponent “is a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward,” Paxton said.
His closing argument includes warnings about crime and the future direction of the Supreme Court.
Talarico Links Affordability to Corruption
Talarico has sought to reach beyond Democratic voters by emphasizing shared financial pressures rather than direct attacks on the Republican Party.
“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” he told a University of Houston crowd. “But we can change that in this election, in this state, in this race, if we come together not as Democrats or Republicans but as Texans.”
A Presbyterian seminary student, Talarico frequently compares his campaign against billionaire-backed opposition to the biblical story of David and Goliath.
“(David) may not have had as many weapons, but he had faith, he had hope and he had a slingshot,” he said. “You are my slingshot.”
His strategy depends on persuading voters who might otherwise reject a candidate with a Democratic label.
Paxton’s Political Record Becomes Central to Contest
Paxton secured Trump’s endorsement and defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
But the general election has brought renewed attention to his corruption controversies, impeachment by members of his own party and public divorce. Paxton was subsequently acquitted in his impeachment trial.
Talarico has used those controversies to challenge Paxton’s fitness for office and connect him to dissatisfaction with the economy.
Paxton, in turn, has highlighted Talarico’s support for transgender rights and previous statements such as “God is nonbinary.”
The competing arguments leave voters weighing personal records, cultural issues and economic conditions alongside party affiliation.
Democrats Remember Beto O’Rourke’s Near Miss
Texas Democrats have seen promising campaigns fall short before.
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by less than three percentage points in 2018.
Talarico has generated substantial enthusiasm and raised more campaign money than O’Rourke, but supporters remain divided between confidence in a breakthrough and concern that Republican advantages will again prevail.
Paxton is relying on those longstanding partisan loyalties.
“It’s simple math,” Nueces County Republican chair Carmen Calderone told supporters. “We can win if we turn out the vote.”
Paxton’s final bus tour carries the slogan “Come and take it.”
Advertising Spending Approaches $340 Million
Advertising spending has reached just under $340 million since both candidates secured their nominations, according to AdImpact.
Talarico’s campaign has outraised Paxton’s, but Republican-aligned super PACs and wealthy donors have helped give Paxton the advantage in overall spending.
Trump has visited Texas several times to campaign for him and praise his record as attorney general.
For Talarico, the combination of Paxton, Trump and Musk reinforces his argument about concentrated political power.
He describes them as “the richest man in the world, the most powerful man in the world, the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
Those descriptions are Talarico’s campaign characterizations.
Musk’s Donations Bolster Pro-Paxton Groups
Musk, who has based himself and companies including Tesla and SpaceX in Texas, has committed substantial resources to supporting Republicans.
He contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. That organization transferred $158 million to Texas PAC, a major outside group supporting Paxton.
Musk also donated $10 million to the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC.
The Senate Leadership Fund contribution and its transfer to Texas PAC are separate stages in the funding chain, rather than two additional Musk donations.
Paxton has not emphasized Musk’s role in his campaign message. Talarico has made it a focus of his criticism.
“Ken Paxton is funded by one dude,” he told supporters. “He wants his very own personal United States senator.”
Economic Dissatisfaction Complicates Republican Appeals
University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus said Talarico’s forward-looking message could appeal to voters weary of partisan conflict.
Paxton’s warnings about Democratic control may face a more difficult audience among people unhappy with economic conditions under Republican leadership.
“The fact that people are shocked into reassessing their own partisan beliefs is because of a sour economy,” Rottinghaus said.
Paxton has maintained his public support for Trump and is betting that the president can motivate enough Republicans to vote, despite weak approval ratings nationally.
Republican Endorsements Give Talarico Crossover Credibility
Talarico has attracted independents and some prominent Republicans, including Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush.
Bush endorsed him this week, joining other figures associated with an earlier generation of Republican leadership.
Those endorsements support Talarico’s effort to present the election as a choice extending beyond party loyalty.
Whether that appeal can overcome Republican turnout and Paxton’s outside spending advantage remains the central question in another closely watched Democratic attempt to win Texas.