With the sound of 2027 assembly elections in the politics of Uttar Pradesh, political turmoil regarding seats in the opposition camp has started intensifying. The way Samajwadi Party and Congress together challenged BJP in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, it gave new strength to the possibilities of alliance within both the parties. But assembly elections are a completely different political test from Lok Sabha elections. Here, not only national issues, popularity of big leaders and election speeches come into play, but the organization in every assembly constituency, caste-social equation, acceptability of the local candidate and strength at the booth level are decisive.
In this background, the discussion of possible active role of Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi in the politics of Uttar Pradesh and direct talks with Akhilesh Yadav becomes important. The question is not how influential a role Priyanka Gandhi will play in the alliance talks, but the real question is whether the Congress and the Samajwadi Party will be able to move beyond their past electoral successes and reach a political compromise in which both parties get respect and also have the real capability to challenge the BJP?
Uttar Pradesh is the biggest opportunity for Congress to regain its lost ground not just as a state but in national politics. Congress, which was once in power in the state for a long time, is today in a very weak position in the Assembly. The party could win only two seats in the 2022 assembly elections. In such a situation, it wants to increase its political relevance by forging an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in the 2027 elections.
Recent political developments are indicating that Priyanka Gandhi may be given an important role in strengthening the organization in Uttar Pradesh, preparing election strategy and negotiating alliance. The media reports of 9 and 10 November also mentioned Priyanka's increasing responsibility and the possibility of coordination with Akhilesh Yadav.
This change in the strategy of Congress is also important because the party no longer wants to achieve electoral success in Uttar Pradesh by relying only on the national politics of Rahul Gandhi and his movements. It needs a face and leadership in the state who can communicate with the organization as well as other opposition parties. How successful Priyanka Gandhi is in this role will become clear in the coming months.
But the biggest challenge before Congress is to prove its real electoral strength. There is a difference between political popularity and the ability to win elections. Gathering crowds at a leader's meetings and winning elections in an assembly constituency are two different things. Congress will have to prove that it not only has national leadership but also has strong candidates and workers at the grassroots level.
The possibilities of alliance between Congress and Samajwadi Party appear strong, but seat distribution is not going to be easy for both the parties. There have been reports of Congress claiming about 175 to 200 assembly seats. On the other hand, within the Samajwadi Party, the thinking of giving relatively limited seats to the Congress is also being said.
According to the Telegraph report of November 9, both Congress and SP are preparing to form their own negotiation committees. Congress state in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam has said that the list of 175 to 200 seats will be given to SP. At the same time, Akhilesh Yadav's public stance has been that seats should be decided on the basis of winning ability.
This is the point where the real test of Priyanka Gandhi's political skills will take place. If Congress wants more seats then SP will not be easily ready to compromise on its strong seats. Both the parties will face the challenge of keeping their workers satisfied and respecting the political needs of the ally.
Congress has to understand that demanding 200 seats and having the ability to win those seats is not the same thing. Similarly, SP should also not forget that Congress's national identity, popularity of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi and its traditional support base in some areas can be useful for the alliance.
The history of SP-Congress alliance has brought many lessons for both the parties. Both the parties had contested the 2017 assembly elections together. Congress was given 105 seats, but the alliance could not oust the BJP from power. SP also had to suffer heavy losses in that election. On the contrary, the coordination between the two parties was relatively successful in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party won 37 and Congress won six. This result gave confidence to the opposition that the BJP's strong electoral structure could be challenged with a joint political strategy.
But it would be a political mistake to consider the success of the Lok Sabha elections as a guarantee of the Assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha, the influence of national leadership and broader issues is greater, whereas in the Assembly elections, local candidates, regional equations and direct contact with the public are more important.Congress must be encouraged by the performance of 2024, but it will also have to keep in mind the results of the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections.
Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav also faces many political compulsions regarding the alliance. SP has increased its strength in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In such a situation, there is a natural expectation within the party that it should get an opportunity to contest more seats in the assembly elections. The biggest challenge for Akhilesh Yadav is to keep his PDA (Backward, Dalit and Minority) political equation strong. If Congress is given more seats then the candidature of many local leaders and potential candidates of SP may be affected. There will also be a possibility of dissatisfaction arising within the party due to this.
On the other hand, Congress also needs space in the areas of its old political influence. Congress is exploring its possibilities in Amethi, Rae Bareli, Saharanpur and some parts of Purvanchal. But demanding seats merely on the basis of historical identity will not be enough. He will have to show how active his organization is there and how strong his candidate is compared to BJP or SP. For Akhilesh Yadav, the success of the alliance will not only mean keeping the Congress together, but also assuring its supporters that the SP is not compromising with its political interests.
Many times in politics, personal communication between leaders becomes more important than bigger issues. The dialogue between the top leadership played an important role in resolving the differences that arose over seats between SP and Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Priyanka Gandhi was also considered a leader who played an important role in this coordination. Now this political wisdom can be useful to both the parties in the 2027 assembly elections. Direct communication between Priyanka Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav can become a medium to reduce the dispute over seats. However, personal relations do not completely eliminate political differences. State level leaders, district units and potential candidates of both the parties will also have to be taken along.
That is why the discussion of giving the responsibility of organizational management and alliance to Priyanka in the new strategy of Congress is important. The New Indian Express report published on November 10 also mentioned the different election roles of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi.The 2027 elections will not only be a battle to save power for the BJP, but will also be a test of maintaining the political equations created in the previous elections. Under the leadership of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, BJP will make the functioning of its government, law and order, development and organizational strength an election issue.
On the other hand, the opposition will try to corner the government on issues like unemployment, inflation, farmers' problems, education, health services and social justice. If the distribution of seats between SP and Congress is done on time, then both the parties will get an opportunity to strengthen their organizations in their respective areas. But if the time for election preparation is lost in the dispute over seats, then the unity of the alliance will remain only a political statement. The biggest relief for BJP will be that the opposition parties remain embroiled in mutual infighting. Therefore, SP and Congress will have to understand that their political competition is not just about getting more seats from each other, but about winning the trust of the people.
The biggest need before the SP-Congress alliance in the 2027 elections will be a practical seat sharing. Congress needs respectable seats as per its political status and Samajwadi Party has to protect its strong seats and organizational base. Both the parties should make a transparent system for the selection of seats. Results of previous assembly elections, assembly constituency-wise figures of Lok Sabha elections, personal popularity of the candidate, activism of local organization and social equations should be made the basis.Besides, both the parties will also have to decide that after the elections no dispute should arise regarding sharing of power. It will also be necessary to agree in advance on a common minimum program and election issues.
Priyanka Gandhi being active in the election strategy of Uttar Pradesh is definitely a new hope for the Congress, but Priyanka's activism alone will not bring back the political ground of the Congress. For this, organization, dedicated workers and strong candidates are required. On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav will also have to give due respect to the allies while playing the role of elder brother.