Samajik Parivartan Morcha Election Analysis: Before the UP Assembly elections 2027, AIMIM Chief Asaduddin Owaisi has joined hands with Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) National President Chandra Shekhar Azad. Both the parties have recently formed an alliance named 'Samajik Parivartan Morcha'. At the time of announcing the alliance, Owaisi and Azad claimed that their front would prevent the BJP from coming to power. However, their alliance may prove to be like a double-edged sword, posing less threat to the NDA alliance and more to the India alliance.
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Muslims will be affected
Owaisi and Azad's Morcha have announced to field candidates on all 403 assembly seats of UP. It is believed that AIMIM, which claims to be friendly to Muslims, can field its candidates on Muslim dominated seats, which mainly include the areas of Western UP, Rohilkhand, Terai and Purvanchal. According to assembly constituency wise estimates, the share of Muslim voters in 68 seats has been reported to be 35% to 78%. Apart from this, this share in 89 seats is said to be between 20% to 28%. A total of 9.23 crore votes were cast in the UP Assembly elections 2022. Whereas the share of Muslim votes in the state is 19 to 20 percent.
If we look at the data of the last assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections, 79% Muslim votes went to SP's account in the 2022 assembly, whereas in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP + India alliance got 92% Muslim votes. NDA had got 8% Muslim votes in the 2022 assembly, whereas in the Lok Sabha elections this figure came down to 2%. At the same time, BSP got 6% Muslim votes in the assembly elections and 5% Muslim votes in the Lok Sabha elections. That means Owaisi's candidate was successful in getting 2 to 3 percent votes. The results on these seats may be affected.
Dalit votes will also be polarized
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Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) President Chandrashekhar Azad will try to attract Dalit votes by becoming a part of the 'morcha'. 84 assembly seats are reserved for Dalits in the state. On whom Azad's party is going to focus the most. Earlier, they had fielded 111 candidates in the 2022 elections and secured a total of 1,19,564 (about 0.13%) votes. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party contested 4 seats in UP and won 1 seat. During this period his vote percentage was 0.69%. However, Nagina MP Chandra Shekhar has come forward and raised the issue of Dalits in the last few years. He has been speaking openly on the issue of reservation and UGC. According to analysts, Chandrashekhar has attracted Dalit voters by continuously raising the issue of Dalits. The voters who were once devoted to Mayawati have now started supporting this young face. The biggest reason for which is the soft attitude of the BSP supremo against the government in the last few years.
According to the data, the Dalit vote in the 2022 UP Assembly elections was divided among BJP alliance (NDA) 28%, Samajwadi Party alliance (SP+) 14%, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 50%, Congress 2% and others 6%. Whereas in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Dalit vote of UP is divided among India Alliance (Jatav 25% and Non-Jatav 56%), NDA (Jatav 24% and Non-Jatav 29%), BSP (Jatav 44% and Non-Jatav 15%) and Others (Jatav 7% and Non-Jatav 1%). It is believed that with Chandrashekhar being declared the CM face of the Morcha, the core Dalit vote of BSP may shift towards the Morcha to some extent.
Front can influence election results on 124 seats
If we look at the data of 2022 assembly elections, the margin of victory or defeat on a total of 124 seats has been less than 10 thousand votes, which is not considered a big difference in the assembly elections. Of these, the victory-defeat difference in 62 seats is less than 5000 votes and in 29 seats the difference is less than 29 votes. If such a situation prevails in the upcoming assembly elections in 2027, then 'Social Change Morcha' can create problems for the candidates of NDA alliance and India alliance. There is a huge possibility of polarization of votes due to the existence of the Morcha in the seats where a tough fight can be seen between BJP and SP-Congress.