The sudden increase in movement of leaders between Patna to Delhi and Delhi to Patna on the occasion of Holi has created a new stir in the politics of Bihar. There is intense discussion in the corridors of power whether there is going to be another upheaval in the politics of the state. Meanwhile, after the Rajya Sabha nomination of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders, political speculation has intensified.
On behalf of NDA in Bihar Assembly, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Nitin Naveen, Ramnath Thakur, Upendra Kushwaha and Shivesh Kumar filed their nomination for Rajya Sabha. On this occasion, many big leaders of BJP and JDU including Union Home Minister Amit Shah were present. After nomination, all the leaders left the Assembly, while Amit Shah reached the State Guest House for a meeting with BJP MLAs and senior leaders. This meeting is also being linked to the increasing changes in the politics of Bihar.
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BJP becomes the largest party, search for new equation
After the assembly elections 2025, BJP has emerged as the largest party in Bihar. 89 MLAs of the party have reached the assembly. People of Bihar still vote in large numbers on the basis of caste, for which in the last elections an attempt was made to create a balance between upper castes, OBCs and extremely backward classes (EBCs) through social engineering formula.
There is also a strong discussion within the party that if Chief Minister Nitish Kumar withdraws from active politics or takes the path of Rajya Sabha, then BJP can bring forward the face of the Chief Minister on its own in Bihar for the first time. This decision will be important not only in terms of political but also social equations.
Caste mathematics will also decide the face of CM
Caste equations have always played a decisive role in the politics of Bihar. The number of upper caste MLAs in the assembly is considered to be considerable. About 35 to 38 upper caste MLAs have won on BJP ticket, among whom leaders from Rajput, Brahmin and Bhumihar communities are prominent.
Around 32 to 35 MLAs from OBC and EBC category have also reached the House. The number of Rajput, Yadav and Brahmin MLAs in the entire House is impressive. Apart from this, 25 Kurmi, 23 Kushwaha, 26 Bania and 23 Bhumihar MLAs are also in the assembly. In such a situation, choosing the face of the Chief Minister for BJP has not only become a political decision but also a question of social balance.
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Samrat Chaudhary is the strongest contender
Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary is being considered the strongest contender in the race for the new CM. Samrat Chaudhary, who comes from the Koeri (Kushwaha) community, is counted among the aggressive OBC faces of BJP. His aggressive political strategy against Nitish Kumar and strong hold in the organization has made him an influential leader within the party. If BJP plays the OBC card then the name of Samrat Chaudhary is being considered at the forefront.
Nityanand Rai also in the race
Union Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai’s name is also in the possible race for the post of Chief Minister. BJP can put forward Rai, who comes from the Yadav community, to make a dent in Lalu Yadav’s traditional vote bank. Nityanand Rai’s strong influence in the organization and central politics, considered close to Amit Shah, also works in his favor.
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Dilip Jaiswal’s name also in discussion
BJP’s Dilip Jaiswal’s name is also in the race for the post of Chief Minister. There is discussion in political circles that if there is a situation of change of leadership in the state, then the party can consider many options. Dilip Jaiswal has been active in both the organization and the government for a long time and is considered to have a strong hold in the party.
Name of Vijay Kumar Sinha and Rudy also
Current Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha is also among the possible contenders. Coming from the Bhumihar community, Sinha’s experience in the assembly and influence in the organization make him a strong option. Apart from this, the name of Saran MP Rajiv Pratap Rudy is also in discussion in political circles. Coming from the Rajput community, Rudy has long political experience and his recognition in national politics has also kept him in the list of contenders.
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BJP can surprise with ‘Dark Horse’ also
In recent years, BJP has taken shocking decisions in many states. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the party surprised everyone by making relatively less known faces as Chief Ministers. In such a situation, the possibility of bringing forward a new face in Bihar also cannot be ruled out. In this, the name of Renu Devi, Janak Ram or any leader coming from extremely backward class may suddenly come to the fore.
Nishant Kumar’s activism also in discussion
Amidst this entire incident, political discussions have also intensified regarding Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar. The recent activism of Nishant, who was away from active politics till now, has created a stir in the political circles. Some JDU leaders indicate that Nishant may soon play an active role in politics. If this happens, then there is a possibility of giving him the post of Deputy Chief Minister under some political agreement, so that JDU’s traditional Kurmi-Koeri vote bank is strengthened.
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