After Dunki, will the study route to the US be clamped shut for Indian students under Trump part two?- The Week

The H1B route, the spousal route, even the dunk route—they all seemed to pale in comparison to the ‘student’ route in recent years, as Indian students in their hundreds of thousands made a beeline to western shores, in many cases a route to easy citizenship compared to the other aforementioned options. There was a particularly massive surge after the pandemic.

But now, all that may see a shake-up post the dawn of Trump Part Two in the US.

According to figures shared in Parliament two months ago, more than 13 lakh Indian students were studying abroad, a spike from just 6.75 lakh Indians pursuing studies internationally before the pandemic. Of this, the largest numbers were in North America, with Canada topping the charts with 4.27 lakh students, followed by the US with 3.37 lakh students.

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And those are exactly the two countries where recent shake-ups and bilateral shadowboxing could cast a pall on student fortunes.

Along with most things related to Trump, the jury’s out on whether the neoconservative government coming in in January will be conducive to more or less Indians studying there. Despite his protectionist policies and anti-immigrant stance, many believe the Trump Administration will be loath to place any clamps on foreign students in the STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) sector or even offer them green cards.

In fact, many experts point out how Trump was at pains to differentiate between his ‘deport illegal immigrants’ stance and his aim to welcome talents from around the world, something that has always been a bedrock of the ‘American Dream’ and the nation’s success in fields like technology.

However, another line of thought is that restrictions and monitoring will be strict; if not for admissions in non-tech fields, then definitely for post-graduation opportunities. Showkat Ahmad Wani, assistant professor at Alliance University’s School of Law, especially pointed out the recruitment of the likes of Tom Homan, Chad Wolf, and Mark Green (latter as Homeland Security secretary). “All three have consistently supported strict immigration enforcement policies,” he pointed out.

“This could lead to tighter student visa regulations and restrictions on programmes like OPT… Furthermore, post-graduation work options, particularly through the Hi-B visa programme, may also face reforms based on the various policies being put forth in the Trump campaign during the election (and) could limit the paths available to Indian graduates seeking employment in the US, he added.

That could be worrying for the aspirants, especially with the worsening of India’s bilateral relations with Canada set to bring down the number of Indian students opting for Canada by anywhere from 40% to 60% over the coming year or so, according to some estimates. Tougher migration restrictions have already brought down the number of Indian students in the UK by 23% over the past year, according to the Home Office.