Just days after Cyclone Dana swept through Odisha with wind speeds reaching 110 kmph, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the potential formation of another cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This developing weather pattern, currently expected to form as an upper air cyclonic circulation around November 5, could bring significant weather changes across coastal areas, particularly along the Tamil Nadu coast by November 9.
In its latest release, the IMD reported that “most of the deterministic models indicate a likely formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the southwest Bay of Bengal around November 5, moving gradually westwards towards the Tamil Nadu coast.” While this system is currently not expected to intensify significantly, the agency’s forecast highlights the possibility of a trough of low pressure forming over the southern BoB during the first week of November.
By the end of this week, a low-pressure area may emerge over the southwest BoB. The IMD also mentioned that there’s a “low probability” of this system intensifying into a depression near the Tamil Nadu coast during the early part of next week.
Several numerical models are being utilized to forecast the potential development of this weather system. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), there is a moderate probability (40-60%) of the formation of a depression over the southern BoB around November 7. Additionally, the IMD’s Extended Range Forecast (ERF) model at the 850 hPa wind field indicates the presence of a trough over the south BoB during this week.
This will be accompanied by an upper air cyclonic circulation near the southeast coast of Sri Lanka in the first half of next week, adding further complexity to the evolving weather situation.
IMD’s forecast also draws on environmental indicators that suggest favorable conditions for cyclonic development. The interaction of oceanic and atmospheric patterns, including sea surface temperatures and wind shear, are supportive of cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal at this time of year. These conditions have set the stage for potential storm formation, though there remains some uncertainty around the intensity and exact trajectory of this potential system.
Given the possibility of another cyclonic system, authorities in Tamil Nadu and other coastal states are advised to stay vigilant. With the landfall of Cyclone Dana fresh in memory, the potential development of this system serves as a reminder of the seasonal cyclone patterns that typically impact the eastern coast of India during this period.
Local disaster management teams and weather monitoring stations are closely observing the situation and will continue to issue regular updates. People residing in coastal areas are urged to follow any advisories from local authorities and be prepared for potential weather disruptions, including heavy rainfall and gusty winds, as this system approaches.
While it is uncertain whether the system will intensify significantly, the forecast indicates heightened activity over the Bay of Bengal through early November. The IMD’s prediction underscores the importance of staying prepared, particularly for communities along the Tamil Nadu coastline, as weather conditions may shift rapidly in the coming day
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