Stock Market: The ups and downs in the Indian stock market are likely to continue next week. Experts say global developments after domestic macroeconomic data, monthly F&O expiry and US President Donald Trump’s tariff decision will decide the market direction. According to analysts, trading activities of foreign investors, US-Iran tension, changes in crude oil prices and global monetary cues will also influence the market movements.
Investors keep an eye on domestic data
Ajit Mishra, SVP (Research), Religare Broking, says that the monthly F&O expiry on February 24 may remain volatile in the market. Investors will also pay attention to key data such as GDP figures, government budget, foreign exchange reserves and infrastructure output (y-o-y).
Impact of Trump’s tariff decision
Experts believe that the new executive orders issued by Trump and changes in the tariff structure after the US Supreme Court’s decision will impact global risk sentiments. On Friday, Trump imposed 10% tariff on many countries including India for 150 days, which was increased to 15% the very next day. The move escalated global trade tensions and potential economic impacts. However, the Supreme Court ruled that the sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 were illegal and that the President overstepped his authority. This is being considered a big blow to the economic agenda of Trump’s second term.
Global factors and GDP data
Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said investors will keep an eye on US-Iran relations, crude oil prices and global monetary cues. Besides, India’s upcoming GDP report will also be important for market trends and companies’ earnings.
Last week’s market performance
The 30-share BSE Sensex index closed 187.95 points (0.22%) higher, while the Nifty 50 gained 100.15 points (0.39%). According to Nair, market sentiments oscillated between caution and optimism during the week. Strong buying in banking, financial, power and select FMCG stocks balanced the impact of global uncertainties.
IT stocks were hit by AI-related disruption and margin pressure, but strength in largecap stocks and India’s participation in global initiatives helped the market close on a positive note. Analysts say the market may remain range-bound in the near future, where liquidity flows and global risk sentiment will remain the major triggers.
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