Speaking at a forum organized on Saturday in Ho Chi Minh City to discuss solutions for preventing and controlling Panama disease in bananas, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Quoc Doanh, former deputy minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and chairman of the Vietnam Gardening Association, said Vietnam currently produces around 2.8 million tonnes of bananas each year.
Banana acreage and yields have increased steadily, reflecting growing market demand and the sector’s expanding production capacity, Doanh noted.
In 2024, banana exports generated about $372-378 million, ranking fourth among fruit exports after durian, dragon fruit and coconut. However, Doanh said this figure remains modest compared to the sector’s production scale and overall potential.
From a business perspective, Pham Quoc Liem, chairman of U&I Agriculture Corporation, said the global banana market was valued at about $15.3 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach $21 billion by 2030. Although Vietnam ranks ninth worldwide in banana production, its exports remain relatively low.
He said that Vietnamese bananas hold less than 40% market share in China, about 3% in Japan and under 17% in South Korea, despite favorable trade agreements and geographic proximity. These figures indicate plenty of room for growth.
Despite its strong prospects, the sector continues to face challenges. Nguyen Quoc Manh, deputy director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, said market information remains limited for producers, while prices fluctuate sharply, particularly for shipments that do not meet official export requirements.
Increasingly strict technical barriers in some markets, especially related to plant quarantine and chemical residue limits, are also placing greater pressure on both farmers and exporters, Manh added.
Doanh, meanwhile, identified plant disease as the most serious threat to the sector, with Panama disease posing the greatest risk. Caused by Fusarium fungus, the disease persists in the soil, spreads rapidly and can cause severe production losses.
He stressed that focusing solely on disease control is insufficient, calling instead for a comprehensive strategy covering plant varieties, cultivation techniques, production organization and market development.
Globally, Panama disease has severely affected banana production since the mid-20th century and remains a major threat, causing an estimated $1 billion in losses each year.
In Vietnam, it became widespread from 2016-2017, devastating many areas that grow Cavendish banana and forcing farmers to switch to other crops.
To curb its spread, Vietnam has joined international cooperation programs, including the Asia-Pacific Banana Network, and also stepped up its own research and training.
“The most fundamental and sustainable solution is the development of disease-resistant banana varieties,” said Dr. Tran Ngoc Hung from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute.
Under the national seed program, priority has been given to breeding high-yield, high-quality varieties resistant to Panama disease. Several varieties have shown strong resistance, including UNI 126 developed by U&I Agriculture Corporation and Furi 5 from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute.
Experts have agreed that with effective disease control, sustainable production restructuring and stronger value chains, Vietnam’s banana sector has an opportunity to become a billion-dollar export in the near future.
According to Manh, Vietnam is expected to have about 163,000-163,500 hectares under banana this year, with output estimated at 2.75 million tonnes annually.
As the fruit has been identified as a priority product for development, its acreage and output are projected to reach 165,000-175,000 hectares and 2.6-3 million tonnes by 2030.
Production will be concentrated in major growing regions such as the Red River Delta, the northern midlands and mountains, the North Central region, the South Central coast, the Central Highlands, the Southeast area and the Mekong Delta.
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