Bengal Election: ‘Didi’ again in Bengal? Latest Opinion Poll Raises BJP’s Intimidation; See what the statistics say
- ‘Didi’ again in Bengal?
- The latest opinion polls have boosted BJP’s intimidation
- See what the statistics say
Matriz Opinion Poll Bengal Election: of West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 The atmosphere is heating up fast and this time the fight is expected to be very interesting. A recent opinion poll conducted by the organization ‘MATRIZE’ has increased the fear of political parties. According to this survey, Mamata Banerjee The Trinamool Congress (TMC) under his leadership is projected to get 43 percent of the votes, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to get 42 percent.
Meanwhile, other parties can get 16 percent vote share. These statistics indicate that this time, there is a possibility of a very tight contest for 294 assembly seats in the state. Talking about seat estimates, TMC is expected to get 140 to 160 seats, BJP 130 to 150 seats and other parties 8 to 16 seats with the magic number of majority being 148.
Analysis of statistics by region
According to ‘MATRIZE’ polls, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is leading in South Bengal and ‘Rarh’ region, while Bharatiya Janata Party is leading in North Bengal, indicating that the Trinamool Congress is losing some ground in the northern parts of the state.
| department | Total space | TMC (Estimated) | BJP (guess) | others |
| South Bengal | 183 | 95-100 | 75-80 | 4-8 |
| Rarah area | 57 | 37-40 | 17-20 | 1-3 |
| North Bengal | 54 | 177–20 | 30-33 | 2-5 |
A changing political equation
At this time, the political situation in Bengal appears to have changed significantly from earlier. Former TMC member Humayun Kabir has created a new political equation by forming ‘Aam Janata Unnayan Paksha’ (Common People’s Development Party). He has formed an alliance with Owaisi’s party ‘AIMIM’. This alliance could pose a major challenge to the TMC, especially in Muslim-majority constituencies. As a result, speculations are being made that the BJP may indirectly benefit from this development. Due to this very reason, a direct and intense fight between TMC and BJP is expected in most of the constituencies.
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Election Schedule and Procedure
The Election Commission has planned to conduct the polls in two phases. The notification for the first phase was issued on 30 March 2026, while the notification for the second phase was issued on 2 April. The deadline for filing nominations has been fixed as April 6 for the first phase and April 9 for the second phase. Scrutiny of nominations will be held on April 7 and April 10 respectively, while the last dates for withdrawal of nominations have been fixed as April 9 and April 13.
Electoral statistics and past performance
According to the Election Commission, West Bengal has a total of 6.44 crore voters; This includes 3.28 crore male and 3.16 crore female voters. The number of third-party voters is 1,152. A total of 5.23 lakh youth voters in the age group of 18 to 19 will exercise their right to vote for the first time this time, while 1.31 crore voters in the age group of 20 to 29 are expected to play a decisive role in this election. Additionally, 3.79 lakh voters above 85 years of age and 4.16 lakh disabled voters will also participate in this election. Interestingly, in the 2021 assembly elections TMC got around 48% votes and won 215 out of 294 seats. With the changed political equations and fierce competition at this time, it will be very interesting to see who finally wins this battle for power.
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