Big trouble for NDA in Parliament! Will the Women’s Reservation Bill be able to save the magical figure of ’38+4′ in the Lok Sabha?

The monsoon session of Parliament is going to start from July 20 and there is a lot of bustle in the corridors of Delhi. There is talk that this time the Modi government may re-introduce the historic ‘Women’s Reservation Amendment Bill’. The plan is to have it implemented by 2029. Along with this, the government may also focus on big bills like ‘One Nation-One Election’ and ‘Uniform Civil Code’ (UCC). But to make these major changes a reality, the government will need to amend the Constitution, for which two-thirds majority in both houses is mandatory.

NDA may get stuck in Lok Sabha

NDA’s position in Rajya Sabha is currently very strong. There is a total support of 150 MPs and only 11 more MPs are needed to touch the magic figure of 161. Non-alliance parties have 24 MPs there, so the government will not have to sweat much there. But the real challenge lies in the Lok Sabha, where the mathematics changes completely.

The support of 360 MPs is required for a two-thirds majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. At present NDA has only 318 MPs including 240 BJP MPs. This figure is 42 steps away from the target. Parties outside the opposition ‘India’ Alliance have a total of 38 MPs. Even if NDA brings together all these 38 MPs, it will still be 4 MPs short of the magic figure of 360. That means NDA will have to break at least 4 MPs from the opposition alliance in any case.

How will this challenging mathematics be completed?

These 38 MPs come from parties like DMK, YSRCP, BJD, BRS and BSP. Now the question is whether all of them will come with NDA during voting? There are three main paths before the NDA:

• First way: If 8 MPs from Sharad Pawar faction join the government, the shortfall will be reduced from 42 to 34, which can be bridged with other neutral parties.
• Second way: If big opposition parties like DMK walk out from voting, the effective strength of the House will reduce. If only 518 members remain present, then the two-thirds majority figure will become 346, which may make the work of NDA easier.
• Third way: The best situation would be if a total of 55 MPs including DMK remain absent from voting. Then only 488 members will be left in the House and the two-thirds mark will be reduced to 326, which the NDA can easily touch.

At present, the NDA’s best efforts will be to ensure that the MPs present with it remain united and in a strategic manner, there is no breach among the opposition parties or their absence from the House.