From the depths of the worst losing streak in NBA history to a No. 1 seed in the space of three seasons. From 14 wins to 60. The rise of these Detroit Pistons is meteoric, no matter how you slice it.
The question remains, though: Are they genuine title contenders?
Will Detroit Pistons rely on defense during playoff run?
The oldest adage is that defense wins championships. While it’s true that you need to be able to adequately defend your basket, an equally true measure of contention is half court offense.
Per Cleaning The Glass, Detroit ranks 16th in half court offense this season, just barely in the bottom half of the league. In the 22 years that CTG has been tracking such stats, only four teams ranked 16th or worse in half court offense have made the NBA Finals. Each had significant conditional fortune.
Detroit’s 2004 title team (ranked 25th) saw its primary contenders suffer key absences, with Indiana’s Ron Artest on a season-long suspension and Miami’s Dwyane Wade going down injured in the conference finals. The 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers (25th) had a dominant LeBron James. The bubble Los Angeles Lakers (16th) had James, Anthony Davis in the form of his life and Rajon Rondo’s final stand as sixth man. Lastly, the 2023 Miami Heat (23rd) received opposition injury luck in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum falling in their respective series. They also had playoff-version Jimmy Butler.
What does this tell us? That to overcome a poor offense, you have to have at least one of a historically great defense, opposition injury fortune or prime LeBron James. It’s difficult to prognosticate on injuries, and the Pistons obviously don’t have prime LeBron. They do, however, have a great defense to lean on.
Will Detroit Pistons’ defense be enough?
While these numbers don’t look great for Detroit, the winds of change are blowing favorably. Traditionally, the game slows down in the playoff crucible. Yet we’re seeing a trend of more teams getting out on the break, with an average of 3.3 more possessions per 100 being categorized as fast-break since 2020. Last season, Indiana pushed the pace all the way to Game 7 of the Finals.
In addition, the offensive glass has become a point of emphasis across the league, with teams now rebounding 29.3% of their misses, up around 2.5%. It’s no coincidence that the Houston Rockets have plummeted without Steven Adams and his elite board work.
While those percentages may appear marginal, it adds up to around five possessions a game: a potential 10-15 points. That matters.
From Detroit’s perspective, it ranks third in the NBA in offensive rebounds and has the greatest percentage of fast break possessions in the league.
Steering away from half court attack, Detroit measures out as a championship challenger in just about every other metric. It ranked second in the NBA in defensive rating (108.9) and its physical, high-pressure defense sees it lead the NBA in opposition turnover percentage. That obviously helps the Pistons overcome their half court struggles on two fronts: fast break points and weight of possession.
With its phalanx of devastating athletes, once Detroit generates a turnover, it flies up the floor and rams the ball down your throat. If it is slowed down, simply winning the possession count gives it more opportunities to score (and hit the O-glass).
The Pistons’ weakness, clearly, is their outside shooting. They rank 29th in three-point attempt rate (30.9%) and 20th in marksmanship (35.6%). A little over a decade ago, the Golden State Warriors disproved that adage that a jump shooting team couldn’t win it all, ushering in a new era of basketball.
If the Pistons, with their all-defense-all-the-time philosophy, claim the chip, does that challenge the modern preconception of basketball? Can the Pistons make defense sexy again?
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