Cement stocks in focus as Equirus flags muted March volumes, steep April price hikes ahead April 1, 2026

The Indian cement sector is heading into April on the back of a weak March, with fresh brokerage research from Equirus Securities flagging a mixed demand picture, declining prices across most regions, and rising input costs that are set to squeeze margins — even as the industry gears up for steep price hikes from early April.

March demand moderated in North and West
After a strong recovery from December 2025 with high growth in January and February 2026, cement demand cooled in March. Equirus noted that growth in the North and West moderated due to a slowdown in construction activity caused by festivals in early March and unseasonal rains in the latter half. South and Central regions held steady with mid-to-high single digit growth, while the Eastern region was the standout, clocking double-digit growth. Overall, the brokerage expects Q4 growth to land in the mid-single digit range for West and North players, while South, Central and East players are likely to see steady mid-to-high single digit growth.

Prices fell across most regions in March — except East

Pricing, which had recovered by ₹15–20/bag in non-trade and ₹5–10/bag in trade prices earlier in the year, reversed course in March. Equirus’s channel checks showed prices declining across all major regions barring the East, with steeper cuts of around ₹15/bag in non-trade and ₹5–10/bag in trade seen in North and West on muted demand. Smaller cuts of ₹5–10/bag were seen in South — particularly Andhra Pradesh and Telangana — and Central markets. Only the Eastern region saw prices hold firm, supported by strong demand.
Steep April price hikes on the cards to offset rising costs

The industry is now banking on fresh price hikes from April 5 to absorb a sharp surge in input costs. Equirus’s channel checks indicate the Southern region could see a hike of as much as ₹50/bag, while other regions are expected to see hikes of ₹20–30/bag. However, the brokerage expects actual price absorption to be lower at around ₹30/bag in the South, given the demand environment.

The cost pressure is coming from multiple fronts. Imported pet coke and coal prices have surged around 30% over the last three quarters of FY26 on rising crude oil prices, and this is expected to inflate fuel costs by approximately ₹200/ton from Q1FY27. Packaging material costs have also risen sharply — polypropylene bag prices have climbed from ₹8.5/bag to ₹15.3/bag, adding approximately ₹150/ton to costs for cement companies. Together, total cost increases are estimated at ₹250–300/ton from Q2FY27 onwards.

Switching to Indian coal has limited headroom

While domestic coal is cheaper, Equirus flagged that switching to Indian coal will be largely limited to Central and East India players. Western and Northern players face constraints including higher fly ash content making Indian coal less suitable for clinker production, limited domestic coal availability for cement producers, and logistical challenges in transporting coal over distances exceeding 1,000 km.

Nuvoco, Dalmia Bharat and JSW Cement better placed

Within the Equirus universe, the brokerage identified Nuvoco Vistas, Dalmia Bharat and JSW Cement as better positioned to weather the fuel cost surge. Nuvoco benefits from domestic coal linkages given its large Eastern operations located close to coal mines. JSW Cement’s lower clinker intensity and high GGBS contribution of around 40% of volumes, along with blended cement mix of PSC and PCC at approximately 65% as of FY25, reduces its overall fuel sensitivity.
The key question for cement stocks now is whether April price hikes stick — and whether demand in the new financial year is strong enough to absorb them.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​