CFR’s warning: War may break out between India and Pakistan again in 2026, Kashmir becomes a big reason!

The latest report by America’s leading think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has fueled fears of war in South Asia. According to the news agency, CFR has warned in its annual report ‘Conflicts to Watch in 2026’ that due to increasing terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir and cross-border tension, there may be an armed conflict between India and Pakistan once again in the year 2026.

In the report of American think tank, the possibility of conflict between India and Pakistan has been described as ‘moderate’. Besides, the possibility of impact on American interests due to this possible conflict has also been kept in the moderate category. In fact, in its report on possible conflicts in 2026, CFR has assessed those countries and situations where the possibility of conflict and war is visible in the new year. The possibility of conflict between India and Pakistan has been expressed in the report, but nothing has been mentioned in much detail. In such a situation, it would be interesting to know what are the reasons in view of which the American think tank might have made this assessment. Let us tell-

Operation Sindoor is not over yet

The biggest reason behind the possibility of conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026 can be considered to be the incident of the year 2025, which had put both the countries on the brink of war. On 22 April 2025, India had launched ‘Operation Vermillion’ in response to the major terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Under this, the Indian Army carried out precise attacks on terrorist targets in Pakistan and PoK, due to which Pakistan suffered huge losses. He has still not recovered from this injury. It is important to mention here that India has been repeatedly saying that Operation Sindoor is not over yet, it has been temporarily stopped. In such a situation, any nefarious act done by Pakistan can become a means to restore Operation Sindoor.

Search for foreign terrorists in Jammu area

Pakistan, which had suffered defeat in Operation Sindoor, has once again started conspiring to increase activities in Jammu and Kashmir. There are intelligence reports that 70-80 terrorists of Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen are planning to infiltrate on the occasion of New Year. Apart from this, in view of the reports of about 30-35 Pakistani terrorists hiding in the high and hilly areas of Jammu region, an intensive search operation has been going on for the last fortnight. Every house is being searched. If these terrorists do something big then the atmosphere can become tense again.

India, Pakistan step up arms purchases

India’s Defense Acquisition Council (DAC) has recently approved the purchase of weapons worth Rs 79 thousand crore, which includes drones and deadly air-to-air missiles. At the same time, Pakistan has also started covering its weaknesses which came to light during Operation Sindoor. It is looking to acquire new combat drones and air defense systems from China and Türkiye. This arms race is enough to turn any small spark into a fire.

Anger over Red Fort blast

There was a suicide blast in a car on November 10 outside the Red Fort in Delhi. 15 people were killed and more than a dozen were injured. Dr. Umar Nabi was said to be the mastermind of this blast. Before the blast, thousands of kilos of ammonium nitrate was recovered from Faridabad. This exposed the white collar terror module in the country. If its relations with Pakistan are confirmed then the matter may worsen.

Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict

In the report of American think tank CFR, there is a ‘medium possibility’ of war between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the year 2026. There have been frequent clashes between the Taliban and the Pakistani Army on the Durand Line for quite some time. If Pakistan gets too involved on its western border, it may create tension on the border with India to divert attention from its internal failure.