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NEW DELHI: The Congress party is having to work overtime to prevent cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha elections in Odisha and Haryana. Although elections are being held in Bihar as well, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has taken charge of preventing cross-voting there. However, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to pull off a strategic coup in Bihar with relative ease. There are weak links within Congress ranks in Odisha as well, which the BJP has firmly set its sights on. Voting is scheduled for Monday in these three states, necessitated by the fielding of additional candidates. The real battle, however, is going to unfold in Haryana. In terms of sheer numerical strength, the Congress party faces no apparent difficulties. Yet, given the experiences of past elections, the Congress is under immense tension.
In the neighbouring state of Himachal Pradesh, the BJP has already demonstrated its ability to engineer a major defection—pulling off a victory in an election that previously appeared impossible. The electoral arithmetic in Haryana is, more or less, quite similar.
To secure a third seat, the BJP would need to poach at least eight Congress MLAs. Given the party’s current internal dynamics, anything is possible in Haryana. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the Leader of Opposition in Haryana, has thrown his entire weight behind this election. His sole objective is to somehow win this election in order to salvage his political reputation. This urgency stems from the fact that, under Hooda’s leadership, the party has suffered consecutive defeats in two Rajya Sabha elections and three Assembly elections. Despite this track record, the Gandhi family continues to repose its faith in him. However, if Hooda fails to secure a victory for his candidate this time around, the internal factionalism within the Haryana Congress is bound to intensify. It is entirely possible that some Congress leaders might defect and join the BJP. Such a development would completely derail Hooda’s political trajectory—a reality of which Hooda is acutely aware. In reality, the trouble was created by Delhi. Disregarding the recommendations of state-level leaders, Rahul Gandhi—acting on the advice of his team member K.C. Raju—awarded the ticket to Karamvir Baudh, a member of the Scheduled Castes (SC). Baudh is neither the kind of leader capable of holding the fort in the Rajya Sabha, nor does he fit well into the prevailing caste equations. The Congress party had already allotted the post of state president to a leader from the Other Backward Classes (OBC). Moreover, the party already possesses a prominent Dalit leader in Kumari Selja. Consequently, the party completely sidelined the upper castes. No sooner had Baudh received the ticket than Satish Nandal, the BJP’s state vice president, filed his nomination papers, thereby compounding the difficulties for the Congress candidate. By extending its support to Satish—a Jat leader hailing from Hooda’s stronghold—the BJP initiated an attempt to frame the election as a contest between Dalits and Jats. The Congress party, for its part, possesses a respectable number of Jat MLAs. Given the turbulent phase the Congress is currently navigating, the morale of its leaders is already shattered, and the future appears bleak. Under these circumstances, anything could happen in Haryana. Nevertheless, the Congress has shifted 21 of its MLAs to Shimla, while the remaining 6 MLAs have stayed back in their homes within Haryana. On the 16th, it will become clear to what extent Hooda succeeds in keeping his MLAs united. While the victory of the BJP’s Sanjay Bhatia is a foregone conclusion, the fate of the Congress candidate, Karamvir Baudh, will only be revealed on the day of the results.
Meanwhile, in Odisha, five candidates are in the fray for four seats. In the 147-member Legislative Assembly, two seats are expected to go to the BJP and one to the BJD. However, intense political manoeuvring is anticipated for the fourth seat. The BJP has designated its state president, Manmohan Samal, as its first-preference candidate, and Sujit Kumar as its second-preference candidate. Furthermore, they have extended their support to the third independent candidate, Dilip Ray.
The BJD has fielded Santrupt Mishra as its primary candidate, while assigning second preference to Debaswar Hota. The real contest lies between Hota and Ray. The Congress party has pledged its support to the BJD. If there is no defection among the BJD and Congress legislators, Hota is poised to win the election. However, the current situation is such that the Congress has shifted its 14 legislators to Bengaluru to prevent cross-voting.
In Odisha—where the BJD had previously decimated the Congress—the two parties have now united after 24 years to defeat the BJP. The BJP currently holds 82 legislators. To secure the third seat, it requires the support of 8 additional legislators. Conversely, if the BJD secures the support of the 14 Congress legislators and the single CPI(M) member, its candidate will emerge victorious.
The BJD possesses 51 legislators of its own, but a tally of 39 is required to secure a win; consequently, the BJP has set its sights on legislators from both rival parties.
Meanwhile, elections are scheduled for 5 seats in Bihar. The NDA is expected to win 4 of these seats with ease. For the fifth seat, the NDA has intensified the political heat by fielding Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha. Kushwaha is pitted against A.D. Singh of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The NDA commands a strength of 202 legislators, whereas the Mahagathbandhan possesses a total of 35 legislators. Securing a single seat requires the support of 41 legislators.
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