New Delhi: The increasing military tension in West Asia (Middle East) is now becoming a big headache for the Indian economy. rating agencies CRISIL According to the latest report, if this crisis prolongs, there will be a huge jump in India’s import bill, which will not only increase the trade deficit, but the country’s GDP growth rate may also slow down.
Key Concern: Current Account Deficit (CAD) crosses 2%?
The most surprising thing in CRISIL report Current Account Deficit Has been said about.
alert: According to the report, India’s current account deficit has increased beyond GDP due to rising prices of crude oil, gas and fertilizers. 2 percent Can reach.
Jump in import bill: Crude oil prices on annual basis increase up to 23% It is estimated that the petroleum import bill will increase tremendously.
Inflation and pressure on rupee
The impact of the West Asia crisis will not be limited to business only, but it will also have a direct impact on the common man’s pocket:
Inflation: Due to increase in the prices of fuel and fertilizers, freight transportation will become expensive, which may increase the prices of food items and other essential commodities.
Rupee decline: Increase in import bill will increase demand for dollar, which may further weaken the Indian rupee against the US dollar.
Shipping and Insurance Cost: Due to tensions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, ship fares and insurance premiums have increased, increasing costs for Indian exporters.
Fear of ‘brake’ on exports too
Export organizations (FIEO) and economic experts have expressed concern that India’s merchandise exports in the financial year 2025-26 Decrease by 2-3% Could.
Softening in global demand: In the event of war, the export of Indian products (especially textiles, gems and jewelery and engineering goods) will be negatively affected due to reduced global demand.
Reduction in growth rate: Moody’s and other rating agencies have also indicated that India’s growth rate projections may be revised downwards due to global tensions. Reduction up to 1 percent Is possible.
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