The upcoming sci-fi thriller Disclosure Day from legendary director Steven Spielberg has received a mixed box office prediction. The UFO film stars Emily Blunt as Kansas City meteorologist Margaret Fairchild who suddenly begins speaking in a strange alien language, causing the world to panic in the face of first contact. In contrast to Spielberg’s prior alien films, E.T. and Close Encounters of the Third Kind, it focuses instead on government control and the spread of social manipulation, as whistleblower Daniel Kellner (Josh O’Connor) attempts to evade pursuit from Noah Scanlon (Colin Firth), the head of a corporation contracted to contain the truth about the aliens. The Universal Pictures production is slated to release on June 12, 2026, amid a swamped summer theatrical calendar.
The budget for Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day remains unknown
An early box office prediction for Disclosure Day has it earning $45 million to $59 million in its domestic opening weekend from June 12 to June 14, 2026. The movie still has about a month, though, to gain momentum and higher box office forecasts.
This range, which comes from a May 15 analysis from BoxOfficeTheoryis lower than the domestic openers of other blockbusters in 2026, including Project Hail Mary’s $80 million, Michael’s $97 million, Scream 7’s $63 million, and The Devil Wears Prada 2’s $76 million. Other comparisons would be to Pixar’s Hoppers that earned $45 million in its domestic opener on its way to a $371 million worldwide total and the romance drama Wuthering Heights that brought in $32 million in its domestic opener and $241 million worldwide.
This projection for Disclosure Day is worryingly moderate, though it’s important to note that the budget for the film has not yet been confirmed. Spielberg’s big-budget movies include 2018’s Ready Player One ($175 million budget), 2021’s West Side Story ($100 million), and 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($185 million). If the budget for the film lands somewhere in this ballpark, Disclosure Day will have a high benchmark to reach to break even (this is typically 2.5 times its budget). Where Ready Player One was a box office success after earning a whopping $583 million worldwide total (notably, it only had a $41 million domestic opener), West Side Story fell short at $76 million.
The report is still encouraged by Spielberg and Blunt being significant draws for casual audiences and Disclosure Day being “the iconic filmmaker’s most commercially accessible release for multiple demographics since his 2018 adaptation of Ready Player One.” It notes “encouraging signals” for high presales for the film that start on May 27, and premium screens potentially helping to give it stronger opening numbers. However, it’s concerned that “original movies based on little or no source material tend to perform within a certain range of opening thresholds.”
While Disclosure Day is targeting an older audience as a PG-13 film, it faces a very competitive theatrical calendar in June, especially from a trio of family-friendly movies. Pixar’s Toy Story 5 releases only a week after the Spielberg film on June 19, before Supergirl lands on June 26 and Minions & Monsters drops on July 1. Disclosure Day could be shielded as a more adult-oriented sci-fi drama that sets itself apart from animated sequels and superhero films, but these three blockbusters will make it tougher for Disclosure Day to grab casual moviegoers in its opening month. An active marketing campaign and strong word-of-mouth from positive critic reviews and audiences will need to remain high so that the film isn’t lost in the shuffle.
At ComicCon in April, Spielberg unveiled new footage for Disclosure Day that gives another look at the conflict between the main characters. It shows Blunt and O’Connor’s characters crashing into a farmhouse and climbing on a train as they attempt to evade government agents.
Comments are closed.