If the ceasefire between America and Iran turns into a serious military confrontation within ten days, then it is not only a sign of tension between the two countries, but also of instability in the entire West Asia. The US launched new airstrikes on Iranian military targets, while Iran launched new airstrikes on US military bases and regional targets. If US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait or other Gulf countries continue to be targeted, the risk of the war automatically expanding to these countries will increase.
It is worth noting that the US-Iran and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts are interconnected, but both are not completely under the same ceasefire system, hence violence on one front destabilizes the other front as well. Trump’s statement that if Iran continues to break the ceasefire, ‘the Islamic Republic of Iran may cease to exist’ is a very serious and destabilizing statement. Public threat to the existence of any sovereign nation is not considered the language of international diplomacy and this weakens the chances of agreement.
Iran may open Hormuz, but will not give up its control over it. He will try to enforce strict rules on maritime traffic here. In such a situation, the agreement on Hormuz is a long way off, so until a permanent consensus is reached on security arrangements and political settlement, there will be uncertainty over global energy supply. American insistence on international inspection of Iran’s nuclear facilities is useless, Iran will never agree to it. Even if America gives relief in the sanctions imposed on Iran, there is a problem regarding the compensation of Rs 28 lakh crore. No Gulf country has agreed to cooperate in this and according to them they have suffered losses from Iran’s attack.
In fact they are entitled to compensation. Why should they pay compensation for a war they did not wage? Unless they are guaranteed a secure future, they will not pay compensation. In fact, the role of regional proxy groups and the security of Hormuz – all these issues are interconnected. These are the deepest differences between the two sides, so it would not be realistic to assume that a permanent ceasefire will be reached soon. Lasting peace is possible only if both sides are willing to back down from their maximum demands, which appears unlikely and the current situation has further dimmed hopes for a ceasefire or lasting peace.
The most appropriate way out for India in this crisis is what has been the basis of its traditional foreign policy – strategic balance. Instead of becoming part of any military pole, India should emphasize on dialogue, maritime security, continuity of energy supply and international law. At the same time, diversification of sources of oil imports, strengthening of strategic petroleum reserves and security of Indian citizens and maritime trade should be the top priority. Stability in West Asia is not only a regional necessity but also a question directly related to India’s energy, economy and national security.
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