The hand of ‘Na-Pak’ is behind the returning shadow of 1971, how is backdoor diplomacy the best option for India?

The Indian government intervened in the war in 1971 due to humanitarian crisis, security threat and strategic compulsion in the then East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, and the repression of the Pakistani army. After five decades, new concerns have once again emerged regarding Bangladesh. Political instability, power struggle, activity of fundamentalist organizations in Bangladesh and the increasing presence of external forces, especially China, America and Pakistan, have posed a new but familiar challenge to India. The question is not whether the situation is worsening or not, the question is how will India deal with this situation? What are his options?

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What do foreign affairs experts say?

Consider Bangladesh as an equal partner – Ashok Sharma

Former Ambassador and Additional Secretary, Government of India, Ashok Sharma has this to say about the situation in Bangladesh, “The central government should respect Bangladesh as an equal partner. You cannot call them infiltrators, termites and objects of hatred. If we do not respect secularism, then how can we expect them to remain secular?”

According to Ashok Sharma, there is also a need to emphasize that there will be stability in the subcontinent only when there is an agreement with Bangladesh. To maintain democratic character, free and fair elections are necessary there. Constitutional institutions should be respected and such institutions should be given maximum autonomy.

According to the former ambassador, the opposition should not be harassed and opposition leaders should be given the opportunity to work normally. This was the reason why Sheikh Hasina was removed from power through a violent movement when there was no democratic alternative.

The situation is worse than 1971 – Dr. Brahmadeep Alune

Foreign affairs expert Dr. Brahmdeep Alune Ka says on this issue, “The situation in Bangladesh is very bad. Despite this, you cannot compare the present crisis with that of 1971. At that time, the Bengali speaking people of East Pakistan were fighting for their culture and political identity. The challenge before Pakistan was to keep East Pakistan connected with Pakistan. That is, it was a matter of keeping Pakistan united. At the same time, the Bengali speaking majority population was trying to keep their culture alive. Fed up with the oppression and repression of the then army, she wanted to separate from Pakistan.”

According to Brahmadeep Alune, in the present situation Bangladesh is struggling with its internal contradictions. Pakistani and fundamentalist elements dominate the power. Therefore, the situation there is worse than in 1971. This situation is not in the interest of the minorities there.

As far as the question is how India will face these challenges, we have options for this. 16 December 1971 is a very important day for India. It is important for us to remain a democratic nation of Bangladesh from economic resources, strategic and tactical point of view. This is because we have a long border with it. Peace in all the states of North-East India is possible only when there is an elected government in Bangladesh. The borders with Bangladesh should be safe. If Bangladesh does not calm down, problems of North-East separatism and linguisticism will arise.

Pakistani ISIS will try to infiltrate terrorists into India through Bangladesh. In such a situation, sparks of unrest may erupt in the North-Eastern states. Fake notes and smuggling will be encouraged. If this happens, Pakistan and China can create new problems.

India brought the situation on track through backdoor diplomacy – Rajesh Bharti

Rajesh Bharti, who has a grip on foreign affairs, says that considering the situation in Bangladesh, the Indian government does not have much options. His logic behind this is that the image we have created among our people in the last few years has emerged as the biggest obstacle at this time. Sheikh Hasina was removed from there after the student movement for the same reasons.

He said, “The people in power in Bangladesh and those who have student politics in their hands are currently the puppets of Pakistan. With their help, Pakistan is busy encircling India with the help of China. Pakistan’s role is important in what is happening there now.”

The central government should try to bring this situation back on track through backdoor diplomacy. Through this, India can put pressure on the leaders through the bureaucracy there. It would be harmful for India to interfere directly there at this time. Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Yunus Khan also does anti-India politics. The vocal faces of the street politics i.e. Genji movement there are also giving anti-India statements.

China, America and Pakistan have their presence there, but they will not be able to do much even if they want to. They cannot face their economic challenges without India. The fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami and Khaleda Zia’s party are in no position to come to power. In the latest situation, support is visible in favor of both the parties, but this is a temporary rise. Only Sheikh Hasina of Awami League will return to power.

1. What is the similarity between 1971 and today’s situation?

Political repression in the then East Pakistan in 1971, migration of refugees to India, anti-India military system, political aggression of Pakistan and now the situation in Bangladesh may not be war-like, but the deepening conflict between power and opposition, distrust in democratic institutions, fundamentalist and anti-India narratives, strategic infiltration of external powers, to a great extent, have emerged as a warning for India as before.

2. Why is Bangladesh a challenge for India?

In the current situation, political instability, questions on democratic processes, conflict between the opposition and the government, speculation about the role of the army and civil rule, the withdrawal of fundamentalist forces, especially the increasing activism of organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami, have fueled anti-India sentiments. In every incident there, fundamentalist elements come forward with an anti-India agenda. In violence against Hindus, a young man died during mob lynching and news of pressure on minorities is coming to the fore.

This situation has affected the security of North-East India. There is a danger of infiltration across the border. There is a possibility of terrorist network becoming active again from the North-East. Efforts to spread instability in the North-East are also coming to light. The entry of America, China and Pakistan has increased India’s headache. China’s infrastructure and port investment, Pakistan’s intelligence and ideological influence are a kind of strategy to ‘encircle India’.

3. Bangladesh is not just a neighbor but also a strategic partner

India shares more than 4000 kilometers of border with Bangladesh. The lifeline connectivity of the North-Eastern states, India’s maritime security in the Bay of Bengal, trade, transit and energy cooperation, instability in Bangladesh is directly linked to India’s internal security.

This is how India dealt with the crisis

1. Diplomatic balance

Instead of any one political group, efforts will have to be made to understand the situation through institutional dialogue, contact with the army, administration and civil society. Implementation of the policy of ‘no-interference but no-ignorance’. By any means, restoring the elected government should be India’s first priority. After that the government should try to bring relations on track on the basis of equality.

2. Emphasis on defense cooperation

Meanwhile, the Indian government should increase border management and intelligence sharing, joint surveillance on terrorism and radicalism, and security of North-East states.

3. Give political answer to China’s influence

Considering China’s influence, respond to it by emphasizing alternative infrastructure and investment models. Emphasis on BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific strategy and increased maritime security cooperation.

4. Emphasis on economic and public cooperation

There should be an effort to bring trade and employment based relations back on track. Education, health and training programmes, countering the anti-India narrative with soft power.

5. Military action last option

The Government of India should adopt military action like 1971 as the last option. This is because the current global circumstances are different. India’s priority has been stability and partnership. The first priority should be to somehow solve the problem through dialogue.