There is always a caution regarding exit polls that these are not the final results but only an estimate. Nevertheless, through these estimates we can try to understand political trends and the possible balance of power.
Yogesh Kumar Goyal, senior journalist
With the completion of the voting process of assembly elections in these five important states/union territories of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, an important chapter of the great festival of Indian democracy has been completed. Now the public mandate is safe in the EVMs and the eyes of the entire country are fixed on the final results on May 4, but before the results, the ‘exit polls’ of various survey agencies have created a stir in the political circles.
These figures have created an atmosphere of celebration at some places and have forced us to rethink strategies at others. These exit polls not only indicate the possible outcomes, but also highlight the complexities of Indian democracy, regional political equations and the changing preferences of voters, although there is always a caution regarding exit polls that these are not the final results, but only an estimate. Nevertheless, through these estimates we can try to understand political trends and the possible balance of power.
The politics of West Bengal has always been of utmost importance at the national level and the contest for 294 seats in West Bengal has been the most interesting election of this year. Here 148 seats are required for majority. If we look at the exit poll data, in its exit poll Chanakya Strategies has given 150-160 seats to BJP, 130-140 to TMC, zero to Congress and 6-10 seats to others. Only the exit poll of People’s Pulse has come out in which TMC has been predicted to return to power.
In this exit poll, TMC is expected to get 117-187 seats, BJP 95-110, Congress 1-3, Left 0-1 and others will get zero seats. Except People’s Pulse, all the exit polls of Bengal are pointing towards change of power in the state. BJP seems to be getting a clear majority here. Surveys like ‘Prajapol’ are taking BJP beyond 200. If these figures prove to be correct, it will be a major upset in the history of Indian politics. BJP’s slogan of polarization and ‘change’ seems to be working at the grassroots level, while anti-incumbency wave and corruption allegations have become a big challenge for TMC.
Voting for 126 seats in Assam was completed on April 9 itself. The majority figure here is 64. Here, the combination of leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma and identity politics along with development seems to be proving to be a ‘winning formula’ for the BJP. All exit polls in Assam are unanimously predicting a landslide victory for the BJP. Here the BJP alliance not only seems to be successful in retaining power, but its seats are expected to increase compared to last time. The Congress alliance seems to be lagging behind here. According to exit polls, the BJP alliance is expected to get 68 to 100 seats, while the Congress alliance seems to be limited to 22-36 seats.
Voting was also held on 140 seats in Kerala on April 9 and 71 seats are needed to get the key to power here. Kerala has a tradition of changing power every five years, which was broken by the Left Front (LDF) in the last elections, but this time the exit polls are indicating that the people are again returning towards the ‘UDF’ (Congress alliance). Pinarayi Vijayan’s government is expected to face a major setback. Here the exit polls appear relatively unanimous and the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF seems to be limited to 49-65 seats, while the UDF seems to be getting a clear lead between 70-90 seats.
Voting was held on 234 seats in Tamil Nadu on April 23 and the majority figure here is 118. As always, the contest in Tamil Nadu is between two Dravidian giants. Here the DMK alliance led by MK Stalin seems to be taking the lead, although the AIADMK alliance also seems to be giving a tough fight in some polls, but currently only DMK seems to be close to the magic figure of majority. The DMK alliance led by Stalin is expected to get 122-160 seats, while the AIADMK alliance may get between 65-110 seats. Axis My India’s poll on 30 seats in Puducherry is giving a clear majority to the BJP alliance (16-20 seats), while the Congress alliance seems to be limited to 6-8 seats. This indicates that the BJP may strengthen its position in this small, but strategically important union territory.
Although exit polls present an exciting picture, their credibility is always in question. History is witness to the fact that exit polls have failed completely many times. In recent years, results from Haryana, Maharashtra (where Mahayuti’s victory margin was much higher than the polls) and Jharkhand (where the NDA lost) have shown how difficult it is for survey agencies to take the pulse of the silent voter. These surveys also have their limitations. Actually exit polls are based on a very small ‘sample size’. In states with crores of voters, the opinion of a few thousand people cannot represent the entire state. Many times voters do not reveal their true inclination or feel pressured while leaving the polling station. In today’s era, exit polls have become more of entertainment than information. (These are the personal views of the author)
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