Explained: How the La Liga relegation race could be decided on the final matchday

The 2025/26 La Liga season is heading into a dramatic conclusion, with the relegation battle set to be decided on the final matchday (Matchday 38) on May 23/24, 2026. Real Oviedo are already relegated, but four or five teams remain in serious danger as points are incredibly tight.

Current Relegation Picture (After Matchday 37)

• Mallorca – 19th, 39 points

• Girona – 18th, 40 points

• Elche – 17th, 42 points

• health – 16th, 42 points

• Levante – 15th, 42 points

Several other sides are mathematically close, but these five are the main protagonists. All final-day games kick off simultaneously, creating maximum tension.

Key Scenarios for Survival

Girona (vs Elche at Montilivi)

Girona’s situation is straightforward: they must win to have any realistic chance of staying up. A draw or defeat almost certainly means relegation. A victory would give them 43 points and put immense pressure on the teams above.

Elche (at Girona)

Elche only need a draw to secure safety in most scenarios. A win would guarantee it outright. If they lose, they could still survive in specific multi-team tiebreakers, but it becomes highly unlikely.

Mallorca (vs Real Oviedo at home)

Mallorca face the toughest task. They must win against already-relegated Oviedo. Even then, they need a combination of results: Girona to beat Elche, Getafe to beat Osasuna, and Levante to drop points against Betis. Only then could they potentially stay up via head-to-head tiebreakers in a three-way tie.

Osasuna (at Getafe) & Levante (at Real Betis)

Both sides on 42 points are in better shape. Avoiding defeat is often enough, though specific losses combined with other results could drag them into trouble. Head-to-head records and goal difference will play a major role in any ties.

Why This Is So Unpredictable

La Liga’s tiebreaker rules (points → head-to-head → goal difference → goals scored) mean small margins will decide fates. A single goal or a surprise result elsewhere could trigger a chain reaction affecting multiple clubs. Girona, who finished as high as 3rd just two seasons ago, are fighting for survival — highlighting how quickly fortunes change.

Football fans across Spain and worldwide will be glued to multiple screens on the final day. This is La Liga at its most thrilling raw, unpredictable, and decided on the final whistle.