Friendship with China, enmity with India, dispute over chicken neck; How will the year 2026 be for Bangladesh?

India and Bangladesh The relations were once considered an example of business, cooperation and strategic partnership. But the situation changed rapidly from mid-2024 to the end of 2025. After Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from power, anti-India slogans on the streets of Dhaka, political instability and attacks on minorities shook the foundation of trust. The year 2026 seems to be beginning in this tense environment for Bangladesh.

During the period of interim government, Bangladesh’s inclination towards China was clearly visible. Survey reports show that China’s image in Dhaka has become more positive than India’s. Efforts were also seen to give a new edge to relations with Pakistan and Turkey. This change indicates that in 2026, Bangladesh will move away from India-centric thinking in its foreign policy and try to find a new balance.

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Sheikh Hasina factor and India’s dilemma

Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India has become the most sensitive link in Dhaka-Delhi relations. Caught between the tough stance of the Bangladeshi court and India’s strategic compulsion, this issue is going to remain hot in 2026 also. India has the option of extradition, maintaining the status quo or going to a third country, all three options are fraught with risk.

Anti-India politics and the ‘India Out’ narrative

In 2025, anti-India forces got free space on the streets and social media. Campaigns like ‘India Out’ also influenced the general public. New student-led parties and radical statements indicate that the 2026 election year could make India’s protest a strong political weapon.

Chicken neck controversy and safety concerns

The statements made on Siliguri Corridor i.e. ‘Chicken Neck’ further deepened India’s security concerns. Threats like isolating India’s North-East are not just rhetoric but point towards regional instability. In 2026, this issue may become the most sensitive security dimension of India-Bangladesh relations.

Attacks on minorities and international pressure

The incidents of attacks on Hindu minorities damaged the image of Bangladesh at the international level. Protests and diplomatic rhetoric intensified in India regarding these incidents. In 2026, global pressure on Dhaka regarding human rights and internal security is likely to increase.

Rise of BNP

The general elections of February 2026 will decide the direction of Bangladesh. Given the strong position of BNP, it is feared that if there is a change of power, relations with India may cool further. In the past, Pakistan’s influence had increased during BNP rule. This memory raises concerns in India’s strategic circles.

2026: Uncertainty, risk and new equations

According to experts, 2025 was a ‘missing year’ for Bangladesh, where a clear foreign policy was not visible. Elections in 2026, proximity to China, conflict with India and internal instability, these four factors together will decide the future of Bangladesh. The question is whether Dhaka will maintain balance or move forward on the path of confrontation.