Here’s whats getting the street excited about Reliance Industries as stock rallies nearly 5% in 2 days

Shares of Reliance Industries Limited have gained strong momentum over the past two trading sessions, rising nearly 5% as improving global refining margins boost optimism around the company’s oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.

As of 9:42 AM (IST), Reliance Industries stock was trading with strong intraday momentum. The stock touched a high of ₹1,419.50 during the session, compared with the previous close of ₹1,389.40. It opened at ₹1,396.50, while the day’s low stood at ₹1,390.30. Trading activity remained healthy, with volumes crossing 40,74,797 shares.

On a broader basis, the stock has moved within a 52-week range of ₹1,114.85 to ₹1,611.80.

Sharp Improvement in Global Refining Economics Drives Excitement

Brokerages like Nomura have spotlighted a dramatic turnaround in global refining margins, positioning Reliance Industries as a prime beneficiary. Refining companies are poised for potential windfall profits in the coming quarter due to surging fuel crack spreads and tightening supply in refined products.

Key highlights from recent analysis:

• Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) crack spreads have skyrocketed to around $144 per barrelmore than double previous all-time highs, signaling intense demand and supply constraints.
• Diesel crack spreads have surged to approximately $57 per barrel (with recent reports indicating even higher levels like $35–$42 per barrel amid geopolitical factors).
• Singapore Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) jumped sharply to around $30 per barrel from just $3.4 per barrel the previous week—a rapid improvement over a short period.
• Indian GRMs are estimated near $24 per barrelup from earlier levels around $20.2 per barrel, while Singapore GRMs have climbed further to $25 per barrel.

These elevated margins stem from global fuel market tightness, including supply disruptions and reduced exports from key players. Reliance’s complex refineries, with a high diesel yield (40–50%), stand to gain significantly—every $1 increase in GRMs could boost annual EBITDA by roughly ₹4,500 crore.

While state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) may see benefits offset by marketing losses due to retail pricing and policy factors, private players like Reliance in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment are viewed as key winners, especially from diesel-driven margin strength.

Geopolitical Shifts and US Policy on Russian Oil

Street buzz also points to evolving dynamics around India’s crude sourcing. Recent US actions, including a temporary easing of sanctions have provided short-term relief amid ongoing compliance pressures.