Does return of 18,000 ‘illegal Indians’ from US spell trouble for Modi?

In a bold move, the Trump administration has intensified its crackdown on illegal immigration, impacting thousands of undocumented Indians in the US. With approximately 700,000 Indians residing illegally in America and 18,000 identified for deportation, this development raises critical questions for the Indian government.

On Capital Beat, former diplomat Rajiv Dogra, international affairs expert Swaran Singh, and The Federal’s Managing Editor KS Dakshina Murthy discussed the implications of this issue.

Trump’s crackdown and its implications

President Trump’s stringent immigration policies aim to curb the influx of illegal immigrants, a move supported by his administration’s deployment of resources, including military personnel at the US-Mexico border. Ambassador Rajiv Dogra emphasised the severity of the situation, stating, “The term ‘illegal’ defines it. If anyone acts illegally, the law demands action.”

Dogra highlighted the scale of the problem: 18,000 Indians identified for deportation are just the beginning. The long-term challenge lies in addressing the broader undocumented population, which exceeds 700,000.

Strain on India’s resources?

The panelists explored the socio-economic impact of absorbing such a large number of returnees. Dr. Swaran Singh acknowledged the logistical challenges but dismissed fears of an immediate crisis. “India is a vast country. Even if 18,000 return, it will not lead to streets being clogged,” he said.

The issue, however, is not just about numbers. Many undocumented immigrants are victims of exploitation by agents who lure them with false promises. “This problem must be tackled internationally,” Dogra asserted, emphasising the need to crack down on human trafficking networks.

Role of diplomacy

India’s response to the deportation wave is critical. Singh explained that while President Trump’s policies create anxiety, they are not unprecedented. “Previous US administrations also deported illegal immigrants. What makes this different is Trump’s flamboyant execution,” he noted.

Diplomatic negotiations are crucial. The Ministry of External Affairs, led by S Jaishankar, has already initiated talks with US counterparts. Singh stressed the importance of balancing diplomacy and pragmatism: “India must avoid confrontation and work collaboratively to address mutual concerns.”

Economic and social dimensions

KS Dakshina Murthy pointed out a fundamental issue: why are so many Indians desperate to leave the country? He observed, “The root cause lies in the lack of opportunities in India. People take enormous risks because they see no future here.”

The panel agreed that addressing domestic economic issues is essential to curb illegal migration. Meanwhile, Murthy acknowledged the contributions of undocumented immigrants to the US economy, particularly in low-paying, labor-intensive jobs.

Global perspective

While India anticipates the return of its citizens, other countries face similar challenges. Dogra noted that South American nations, heavily affected by deportations, might see political backlash as repatriated citizens form anti-incumbent voting blocs. “It’s a global issue, not just an Indian one,” he said.

However, Dogra also identified a silver lining for India. Deporting individuals with ties to extremist movements, such as Khalistani sympathizers, could benefit national security.

Looking ahead

The panelists agreed that the issue of illegal immigration requires long-term solutions. Strengthening India’s economy, cracking down on exploitative agents, and maintaining robust diplomatic ties with the US are critical steps. Singh concluded, “India must learn from this episode and ensure comprehensive measures to prevent exploitation and provide opportunities domestically.”

The deportation of undocumented Indians from the US is a complex challenge, intertwining legal, economic, and diplomatic concerns. As the Modi government prepares to address this issue, the stakes are high — not just for the individuals involved, but for India’s international standing and domestic stability.

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