India Import Saudi Arabia: Break on Russian Oil; Saudi Arabia became India’s largest supplier

India Import Saudi Arabia: After the US embargo on Russian oil, India has reduced purchases from Moscow. Meanwhile, imports from Saudi Arabia have increased. India’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to the highest level since November 2019 in February. In February, it was around 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the Times of India. During this period, Saudi Arabia temporarily overtook Russia to become India’s largest oil supplier.

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Crude oil imports from the West Asian country reached 1.3 million barrels on Friday, February 20, according to global data and analytics services provider Kepler. This was more than Russia’s estimated supply of 1.1 Mbd. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has been India’s third or fourth largest importer of crude oil. Russia has always been the top, while Iraq and the UAE are the other two major suppliers.

After the attack on Ukraine, India increased its oil purchases from Russia, widening the gap. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India became a major buyer of Russian crude oil. At the time, Russian oil was heavily discounted due to Western sanctions. At its peak, India was importing approximately two million barrels per day of Russian crude oil. However, according to Kepler, Russian oil supplies are expected to fall further to between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day next month. The figures come at a time when the US is pressuring India to reduce crude oil purchases from Russia.

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Recent growth has narrowed the gap between Saudi Arabia and Russia significantly. “We expect some decline in the coming weeks, as some shipments may arrive in early March,” said Sumit Ritolia, principal research analyst at Kepler. For the full month, we forecast imports from Saudi Arabia to average 1 to 1.1 mbd in February, a multi-year high. He said crude oil imports from Russia are expected to be 1 to 1.2 mbd in February and could decrease to 0.8 to 1 mbd next month.

According to analysts, imports from Russia are expected to fall further in April as Naira’s Vadodara refinery, which is heavily dependent on Russian crude oil, is slated to shut down for maintenance in April-May due to EU sanctions.