India or South Africa, who has more chances of reaching the semi-finals?

The ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 is now in its final stages. From Group-2, England and West Indies have made it to the semi-finals. The Australian team has also almost qualified from Group-1. India, South Africa and Bangladesh are in the race to become the second semi-finalist team from this group. Bangladesh team is in the race for the semi-finals but its expectations are not high. To reach the semi-finals, they will have to defeat South Africa by at least 117 runs today (June 28) and also hope that the Australian team beats India.

What will India have to do?

India’s performance in the tournament has been full of ups and downs. It achieved big wins against Pakistan and Netherlands but after that it had to face defeat at the hands of South Africa. Team India then made a comeback by defeating Bangladesh. Now it needs a win against Australia at any cost to move ahead. If the South African team defeats Bangladesh, then the match with Australia will become a virtual quarter-final for Team India.

 

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The net run rate (2.268) of the Indian team is excellent. They just need a win to reach the semi-finals. If Bangladesh team beats South Africa then Team India will qualify for the semi-finals despite the defeat. However, this does not seem possible. At Lord’s, Bangladesh team could score only 69 runs after losing 2 wickets in 14 overs. The South African team has dominated the match. In such a situation, only the victory of Team India is going to decide the matter.

 

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How much chance does South Africa have?

If the South African team captained by Laura Woolfart wins, it will reach 8 points. Australia has 8 points with a strong net run rate (4.724). Indian team can also reach 8 points. South African team can only beat Team India in terms of net run rate. However, for this he will have to carry out an impossible chase. After winning to reach the semi-finals, the South African team will have to pray that India loses.

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