Amidst the ongoing war in the Middle East, Iran has given such a signal which has created new concerns about the military strategy of America and Israel. A senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced that now Iran will attack only with missiles with warheads of 1000 kg or more. According to defense experts, this decision is a big change in the way of war, because with this the blast radius, lethality and destructive effect of each missile will increase many times more than before.
Analysts believe that this step is not just an attempt to change the military strategy but the entire ‘economics’ of war. Till now, Iran used to adopt the strategy of tiring the enemy’s air defense with cheap drones and large number of missiles, but now it seems to be preparing to directly target large military targets through small number of but highly destructive missiles.
Will Iran now attack with more powerful missiles?
Brigadier General Majid Mousavi, quoted by Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen, said that the attacks, which so far have targeted American and Israeli military bases as well as regional infrastructure, will increase in intensity and scope. Important structures like Dubai International Airport and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery were mentioned in these attacks. According to defense experts, this is a sign that Iran has now entered a new strategic phase of the war.
Has Iran’s strategy changed?
Military analysts say that Iran will no longer rely on the strategy of tiring the enemy air defense system by sending waves of cheap but deadly Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones as before. Now Iran’s strategy is ‘penetration strike’. That is, targeting enemy airbases, underground command centers and strong military structures by attacking with missiles with smaller numbers but more powerful and heavier warheads.
Is this an attempt to change the ‘economics’ of war?
Geopolitical analyst Shanaka Anselm Perera wrote on social media platform According to him, when a missile has a warhead of one ton, the cost of failing to stop it doubles, because upon impact its destructive radius also doubles… that is, every miss can bring twice as much devastation as before. That is, if such a missile is not intercepted, its damage will be many times more than before.
Does Iran have such a large missile stockpile?
According to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran has the largest and most diverse missile stockpile in the Middle East.
It includes many state-of-the-art missiles-
- Soumar Cruise Missile – whose estimated range is said to be around 3000 kilometers.
- Sejjil Ballistic Missile – Capable of hitting about 2000 kilometers
- Khorramshahr MRBM – 2000 to 3000 km range and up to 1800 kg payload capacity
- Kheibar Shekan Missile – Solid fuel medium-range ballistic missile
Was Iran adopting the strategy of ‘War of Attrition’ earlier?
Iran’s strategy in the initial phase of the war was to tire the enemy’s air defense system with continuous attacks. By attacking with large numbers of low-cost Shahed drones and missiles, it was forcing the US and its allies to use expensive interceptor missiles.
For example-
- Patriot Missile System – approximately $4 million per missile
- THAAD Interceptor – approximately $12 million
- Arrow-3 missile – about 3 million dollars
- Whereas the price of a Shahed drone is said to be around $50,000.
Will heavier missiles now make interception more difficult?
According to experts, now when missiles with heavy warheads will be used, the challenge before the air defense system will increase further. According to Perera, ‘the defending side will now have to use more interceptor missiles than before to maintain the same probability of neutralizing every incoming missile.’ This means that to stop one missile, more interceptor missiles may have to be deployed than before.
Can Iran’s new strategy change the direction of the war?
Defense analysts believe that if Iran actually starts using missiles with more than 1000 kg warhead, it could put huge pressure on the air defense strategy of America, Israel and Gulf countries. “The IRGC is no longer choosing between numbers and weight,” Perera warned. He is now using both together. That means Iran can now use both numbers and strength simultaneously. This is why experts believe that this war in the Middle East may take a more dangerous and destructive form in the coming days.
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