It is not easy to change CM Nitish Kumar, what do the track record and equations say?

A big meeting is going on at the residence of Janata Dal United (JDU) National Working President Sanjay Jha in Patna. Apart from Sanjay Jha, Minister Vijay Chaudhary and MLC Sanjay Gandhi, close to CM Nitish Kumar, are also present in the meeting. The news is that Nitish Kumar will go to Rajya Sabha and will become a part of central politics. However, the party has not made any such announcement officially. But apart from Patna, this news has started floating in the political circles across the country.

 

Amidst all the speculations, Union Minister Giriraj Singh refuted these claims and said, ‘Such jokes on Holi are common. Nitish Kumar ji is our Chief Minister. On the other hand, JDU MLC Sanjay Gandhi, close to Nitish Kumar, says that whether to go to Rajya Sabha or not, it will be Nitish Kumar’s decision. The Chief Minister (Nitish Kumar) will decide himself. In view of the elections, we had held a meeting to strengthen the organization.

 

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How was Nitish Kumar’s track record?

There has been speculation many times before about replacing Nitish Kumar in Bihar politics. However, Nitish gave a befitting reply to every attempt to change his position ahead of time. In 2013, we broke relations with BJP saying that we will not join hands with communal forces. Contested elections under the Grand Alliance and became Chief Minister with the support of Congress-RJD. This alliance broke in 2017.

Nitish moves by wasting time

Again joined hands with BJP and accused RJD of corruption. Cited national interest in 2022 and again broke ties with BJP. Tried hard to form a grand alliance at the national level. But before the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, he became an ally in the government with BJP. Congress and RJD were sidelined. It is clear that Nitish Kumar makes his moves according to time and situation. There is no moral pressure on them to remain associated with BJP or leave it. He is a leader who takes decisions openly.

 

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Is this the equation going to turn upside down this time?

In the assembly elections 2025, JDU has won a total of 85 seats. RJD has won 25, Congress six, Owaisi’s party 5, MLA has won two seats, Indian Inclusive Party and CPI(M) have won one seat each. If all these seats are combined then the figure reaches 125. This is three more than the majority figure of 122 in Bihar Assembly. Immediately after winning the assembly elections, Owaisi had talked about supporting Nitish Kumar in the name of development of Bihar. If Nitish Kumar wants to go to Rajya Sabha on his own will then it is fine, but if there is any political compulsion on him then he can also play a new trick. Whether to go to Rajya Sabha or not will completely depend on Nitish Kumar.

Why is it not easy to change Nitish?

Apart from the Centre, Nitish Kumar has long experience in the politics of Bihar. He has been the Chief Minister of the state since 2005. He is an expert player of coalition politics. There is also a permanent social basis. The image of good governance among the public makes them stronger. His strong hold on the women of Bihar and the EBS vote bank gives him the strength to overcome every political crisis. The most important thing is that Nitish Kumar has experience of working with both the government and the opposition. If the party sends him into central politics, it may have to lose its support base in Bihar, because it will not be easy to find a leader with a strong hold like Nitish Kumar. After joining central politics, his interference in the state will also reduce.

When and where elections?

This year, elections are to be held on a total of 37 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states. The terms of these members are ending from April 2026. Election notification was issued on 26 February. The last date for filing nomination is March 5. Nominations can be withdrawn till March 9. Voting will take place on March 16. Counting of votes will take place from 5 pm onwards. Elections will be held on 37 seats in Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana.

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