Millions of youths outside school and work raise concerns over lost talent, welfare strain

According to the General Statistics Office, this group, often described as the “three nos” generation, accounted for 11.4% of the country’s youth population.

Nearly 70% were in rural areas, more than half were female, 87% have never received technical or vocational training, and over half have not gone to secondary school.

Only 13% have received training at the elementary level or higher, and 32% are seeking employment.

Dr. Pham Ngoc Toan, director of the Center for Information, Analysis, Strategic Forecasting and Public Services that belongs to the Institute of State Organization and Labor Sciences, says the “three nos” group reflects the shock many young people face when moving from school to the labor market, rather than a lack of effort or motivation.

In terms of education, they tend to fall into two extremes. One group has yet to complete or has only recently finished lower or upper secondary school, making it difficult to find well-paid jobs. They often work in the informal sector, take temporary jobs and leave the labor market early.

The other group includes college and university graduates whose skills do not match employer needs. Many expect high-paying jobs but end up in low-income positions, switch jobs frequently or become discouraged about their career paths.

“Many people have degrees but lack practical skills, fail to meet job requirements, and fall into the ‘three nos’ category,” he said

Associate Professor Dr. Pham Manh Ha, a senior lecturer at the School of Education Science and Technology, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, concurs with this assessment.

The issue is often less visible in cities, with many staying at home but not involved with any job or training. Geographically, in rural and mountainous areas, the “three nos” group is often made up of workers who return home after economic disruptions.

From a psychological perspective, people in this group often lack confidence or goals, fear failure, and lose direction as traditional expectations about education and stable careers weaken, he says.

He also mentions that Vietnam falls between two major trends in Asia, China’s “lying flat,” which reflects a conscious rejection of social and career pressure, and Japan’s “hikikomori” or extreme social withdrawal.

In Vietnam, most young people embracing the “three nos” are neither fully disengaged nor rejecting work, but remain in a passive, in-between state, still connected yet slow to enter the labor market, he explains.

Associate Professor Dr. Pham Manh Ha, senior lecturer at the Faculty of Education Science and Technology, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, has many years of research experience in school psychology and career guidance. Photo courtesy of the subject.

It is driven by three overlapping layers of causes, he says.

Many parents both protect and pressure their children, supporting them financially into adulthood while expecting them to secure desirable jobs, reducing the urgency to work, and making young people hesitant to accept entry-level roles.

“This is the trap of an overly comfortable home.”

Career guidance in schools often emphasizes choosing the field of study rather than understanding personal strengths, he says.

Students are asked what they want to study instead of being asked to assess their abilities and personality. Consequently, some realize too late that they chose the wrong path, leading to frustration and withdrawal, he notes.

The labor market is also becoming increasingly polarized between strong demand on one side for high-level skills in areas such as AI and data, and for low-income, low-skilled jobs on the other, and the middle ground where many average graduates aim to be, is shrinking, he explains.

Thus, there is a labor shortage but also 1.6 million young people in the “three nos” group at the same time, he says.

Many young people are raised with the expectation of avoiding manual jobs since they are undesirable or carry a perceived loss of status, but the education system has not kept pace with the contemporary demand for extreme skills.

Losing young talent, increasing social security burden

The “three nos” group represents lost potential amid Vietnam’s demographic “golden period,” when a large working-age population is expected to drive growth.

If this group remains outside the labor force, the long-term impact could include lower productivity, greater income insecurity, and rising social risks.

Many in this group do not pay for social insurance, leaving them without adequate protection and increasing the likelihood of financial insecurity in old age.

The social insurance fund is likely to come under pressure as the number of beneficiaries rises while contributions slow.

The system depends on intergenerational support, with current workers funding benefits for earlier generations.

A young man looks at job listings at the Hanoi Employment Service Center. Photo by Hong Chieu

While the risks are clear, the General Statistics Office says this situation exists to some degree in every economy, often during the transition from education to employment or as a temporary phase outside the labor force.

The goal is not to reduce the rate to zero, but to keep it at a manageable level, which requires comprehensive solutions.

Toan recommends targeted solutions for different groups, pointing out that, for instance, those who leave school early need vocational training linked to real jobs.

Young women in rural and mountainous areas, who are often shaped by family expectations, may need better access to social services and flexible, local employment, he says.

Training for those with limited skills should match what the job market actually needs, and those under psychological pressure, who have tried to study and find work but could not, might need dedicated mental health support, he points out.

Ha says that, from a psychological perspective, people should be assessed before any intervention, and most will need both mental health support and skills training.

In the spectrum, at one end are those with stable mental health but limited skills or direction and at the other are individuals with conditions such as anxiety or depression, for whom job training alone is unlikely to be effective, he says.

The largest group falls in between, he says, requiring both psychological support and skills development.

He also stresses the importance of early intervention through career guidance and stronger links between schools and employers while people are still studying.

Once someone has stayed at home for years and developed low self-confidence, pushing them directly into training could exceed their psychological readiness, he continues.

For those already in the group, he proposes a three-step approach by restoring basic mental well-being, reconnecting them socially through short-term community or volunteer activities, and training and employment for them with structured support such as skills programs, vocational training, and trial jobs, rather than immediate full-time employment.

“Telling parents where the line is between support and overprotection is often overlooked, though many unintentionally prolong the situation.” He adds that the issue extends beyond education or mental health, requiring coordinated action across social and economic policies.