Monsoon 2026 Prediction: Will there be less rain this year? Meteorological department’s first forecast released; Clouds of concern due to ‘El Nino’

• Will it rain less this year?
• Meteorological Department’s first forecast released
• Clouds of concern due to ‘El Nino’

Monsoon 2026 News: An important piece of news has come out about the southwest monsoon (monsoon), which is a very important factor for the country’s rural economy and agriculture. on monday, 2026 by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). released its first ‘Long Range Forecast’ for the monsoon season of According to the Meteorological Department, monsoon rainfall across the country is likely to be “below normal” this year.

How much rain is expected?

According to the Director General of IMD, the average rainfall over the country during June to September is estimated to be 92% of the ‘long term average’ (LPA). This estimate includes a ‘model error margin’ of 5%. It is important to note that, based on data from 1971 to 2020, the ‘Long Term Average’ (LPA) for the entire country is 87 cm.

Sub: Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall 2026

(1) India Meteorological Department predicts below normal southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2026.

(2) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal… pic.twitter.com/c9dlF6bFAY

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 13, 2026

The Meteorological Department has classified the probability of rain as follows:

Below normal rainfall: 31% chance
Deficient rain: 35% chance
Normal Rain: Only 27% chance

Maharashtra Weather Update : Unseasonal weather again in the state, orange and yellow alert for ‘these’ districts

Which regions will be affected?

According to the latest IMD forecast, monsoon progress is expected to remain slow in most parts of the country, which is likely to result in below normal rainfall. However, there is also some good news for certain regions. Rainfall is likely to be ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ over Northeast India, Northwest India and parts of South Indian Peninsula. Conversely, Central India and some other regions may experience deficient monsoon rains.

Shadow of ‘El Nino’ ​​and role of ‘IOD’

This year’s monsoon season is under the influence of ‘El Nino’. According to the IMD report, the intensity of the ‘La Nino’ ​​condition currently prevailing in the Pacific Ocean is decreasing and it is now moving towards a ‘neutral condition’. However, during the monsoon season (June to September) there is a high possibility of an ‘El Nino’ ​​condition. This natural phenomenon usually has a negative impact on the Indian monsoon. Currently, the Indian Ocean is in a ‘neutral state’; However, towards the end of the monsoon season there are signs of developing a ‘Positive IOD’; This situation can be somewhat beneficial for Monsoon’s performance. From January to March 2026, ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere remained below normal. It is important to mention that this is considered a positive sign for monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will announce the second phase of its monsoon forecast in the last week of May; This will provide more accurate information about the arrival date of monsoon and its regional distribution.

IMD Weather Update: Put away the umbrellas! Rain warning in 11 states of the country; So the force of cold will increase again in North India