The NBA is ready to take decisive action against one of the most debated practices of recent years: tanking. The league has presented team owners with a new proposal to reform the Draft Lottery, called the “3-2-1 Lottery” with the goal of discouraging strategic losing and making the final stretch of the regular season more competitive.
If approved at the Board of Governors meeting on May 28, the reform will come into effect starting with the 2027 NBA Draft.
How the new NBA 3-2-1 Lottery works
The new system would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams also including those involved in the Play-In Tournament. The main change concerns the distribution of odds to land the No. 1 overall pick.
Teams would be divided into four tiers:
- The three worst teams in the league would receive 2 balls each
- The next seven teams, excluded from playoffs and play-in, would receive 3
- The four teams ranked ninth and tenth in each conference would receive 2
- The two losers of the 7th vs 8th matchups would receive 1
The result is a system that clearly penalizes teams finishing with the three worst records in the NBA. Paradoxically, those teams would have just a 5.4% chance of getting the No. 1 pick lower than the 8.1% granted to the seven teams immediately above them in the standings.
The “Draft Relegation Zone”: the core of the reform
The real centerpiece of the proposal is the so-called Draft Relegation Zonemeaning the tier occupied by the league’s three worst teams. Any franchise landing there loses one ball compared to other non-play-in teams, reducing the advantage of deliberately losing.
At the same time, those teams would have a safeguard: they could not fall below the 12th overall pick. A kind of safety net that prevents a total collapse while maintaining the penalty.
The idea is simple: make finishing at the bottom of the standings undesirable.
Why the NBA wants to eliminate tanking
In recent years, the system has often incentivized teams to sacrifice the present to increase their chances of landing a future superstar. A strategy that, especially in draft classes loaded with talent has ended up hurting the league’s competitiveness.
Adam Silver was very clear on the matter:
It’s a decision that has to be made at the ownership level. It has economic, basketball and integrity implications for the league. We take it very seriously and we will resolve it. Period
Adam Silver
The NBA’s goal is to make every win meaningfuleven for struggling teams. Under this system, staying in the bottom three would become a disadvantage rather than an opportunity.
More incentives to win, even late in the season
One of the most interesting aspects of the proposal is the potential shift in mindset. Teams at the bottom of the standings would finally have a concrete reason to win.
Climbing out of the bottom three would mean moving from a 5.4% chance to 8.1% for the top pick. A significant jump that would make the final weeks of the regular season far more competitive.
In other words, losing would no longer be the best strategy.
New restrictions: no more consecutive jackpots
The proposal also introduces further limitations to prevent prolonged tanking cycles:
- No team will be allowed to secure the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years
- No franchise will be able to land a Top 5 pick for three straight seasons
A measure designed to prevent excessive talent accumulation in a short period and to avoid certain organizations repeatedly benefiting from the lottery.
More power to the NBA against tanking
The league also intends to strengthen its disciplinary authority. In cases of behavior clearly aimed at intentional losing, the NBA will be able to:
- Reduce a team’s lottery odds
- Directly modify its Draft position
A concrete threat aimed at discouraging any attempt to manipulate standings.
A perfect reform? Not yet
The system still presents some potential issues. The most advantageous tier appears to be the group of teams outside the play-in but also outside the relegation zone. This could create new strategic incentives to avoid certain standings positions.
The transition between probability tiers is also not perfectly balanced, and some teams might be tempted to “choose” their positioning.
Not by chance, the NBA has included a sunset provision: the system will automatically expire after the 2029 Draft unless extended or modified.
The NBA is moving in the right direction
While not a definitive solution, the 3-2-1 Lottery represents an important step toward a more competitive and credible league. The goal is clear: eliminate incentives for intentional losing and restore value to every game.
Teams will still be able to rebuild through the Draft – but they will have to do so without turning the season into a race for the worst record.
And that is exactly what the NBA needed.
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