New mathematics in T20 World Cup, one point increased the heartbeats, Pakistan’s path is very difficult

New Delhi :Pakistan Cricket Team’s semi-final hopes in the T20 World Cup 2026 have suffered a major blow when their first match against New Zealand at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo was washed out due to rain without even a single ball being bowled. Due to cancellation of the match, both the teams got one point each and from here the entire equation of the group changed.
Initially it was believed that in this group of four teams, every team will have equal chances but now the situation is different. Pakistan has definitely got one point in its account but its net run rate is considered very weak, hence the path ahead is not easy. Now the team will have to win both its remaining matches at any cost.

Pakistan’s next match is against England on 24 February and then against Sri Lanka on 28 February. If Pakistan wins both the matches then it will have five points and reaching the semi-finals with five points can be considered almost certain. In this group of three matches, five points make a strong position and at most only one team can equal this figure.

But if Pakistan wins one match and loses one then it will have a total of three points, in such a situation the picture will get complicated. Qualification on three points will depend on the results of remaining matches and net run rate and this is where Pakistan can lag because poor net run rate can hurt them if two or three teams remain on equal points.

The worst situation will be if Pakistan loses both its matches, in such a situation the team will be out of the tournament with just one point and the dream of semi-finals will end here, hence now every match is like a final and even a small mistake can prove costly.

The interesting thing is that the cancellation of the match due to rain cannot be called a complete loss. If it is assumed that all four teams are equally strong and the chances of winning in every match are equal, then generally in any match there is a risk of winning two points or remaining at zero, but due to the cancellation of this match, Pakistan and New Zealand got a guaranteed point and the danger of defeat was averted.

Mathematically, with this, the chances of Pakistan and New Zealand reaching the semi-finals can be considered slightly increased to around fifty-six percent whereas England and Sri Lanka will now have to play all their three matches with full risk. However, this is only a theoretical assessment. The real difference will be in the performance on the field and winning by a big margin.

Overall the picture is clear, there is no scope left for Pakistan, the team will not only have to win but will have to win by a big margin so that the net run rate can improve. The rain may have given one point but the real test has now started and the path to the semi-finals is completely dependent on the performance.