Research Says 59% of Women Will Have This Condition by 2050—Here’s How You Can Lower Your Risk

Heart disease is on the rise for women in the United States—here’s what you can do to take control now.

Reviewed by Dietitian Jessica Ball, M.S., RD

Key Points

• Over 44% of women in the U.S. are living with some form of cardiovascular disease.
• If current trends continue, more than 59% of women will have hypertension by 2050.
• Small, consistent lifestyle changes can meaningfully reduce risk over time.

For both women and men, heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States and worldwide. Although women account for nearly half of all cardiovascular disease cases in the U.S., women’s heart health often receives less focused attention. Between careers, caregiving responsibilities, hormonal transitions and the constant mental load many women carry, heart health can easily fall to the bottom of the priority list. But emerging research suggests it may deserve a much higher spot.

More than 44% of women in the U.S. are currently living with some form of cardiovascular disease. While nonmodifiable factors like age and genetics play a role in this statistic, trends in modifiable health factors and lifestyle behaviors are major drivers of risk. These factors—outlined in the American Heart Association’s Life’s Essential 8 (the key measures defined for improving and maintaining cardiovascular health)—include diet, physical activity, sleep, tobacco use, blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar and body weight.

To better understand what the future holds for women’s heart health, a recent analysis, published in Circulationprojected the prevalence and number of women with cardiovascular risk factors and clinical disease from 2020 through 2050. In other words, by combining historical data with population forecasts, researchers estimated how women’s heart health in the U.S. could shift in the coming decades.

How Was the Study Conducted?

Researchers analyzed data from large, nationally representative U.S. health surveys to estimate current rates of cardiovascular risk factors and clinical disease among women. To estimate the current numbers, they used data from:

• The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2015 through March 2020 (prepandemic) for most cardiovascular risk factors and conditions
• The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) from 2015 through 2019 to estimate rates of atrial fibrillation

Using these data sets, researchers first determined the prevalence of suboptimal levels of the American Heart Association’s Life’s Essential 8, along with four cardiovascular conditions: coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke and atrial fibrillation. They also created an overarching category, “total cardiovascular disease,” to capture women living with any of these four conditions.

Next, estimates were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity to account for differences across demographic groups.

Finally, researchers projected future trends through 2050. To do this, they analyzed historical changes in cardiovascular risk factors and disease rates, calculated how quickly these rates were increasing or decreasing and applied those trends to future U.S. population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.

What Did the Study Find?

Using national survey data, researchers projected how cardiovascular risk factors and disease in U.S. women may change through 2050. In a nutshell, the analysis painted a complex but concerning outlook.

Among adult women, several major risk factors are expected to rise substantially if current trends continue. Specifically, hypertension is projected to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050. Diabetes is expected to rise from 14.9% to 25.3%, and obesity from 43.9% to 61.2%. This means that more than half of adult women could be living with high blood pressure or obesity within the next 25 years.

Importantly, these increases in risk factors translate into higher rates of clinical cardiovascular disease across the board. Coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke and atrial fibrillation are all projected to increase, with total cardiovascular disease rising from 10.7% to 14.4%—meaning that about one in seven adult women could be living with some form of cardiovascular disease by 2050.

Surprisingly, health behaviors told a more nuanced story. Smoking rates, physical activity levels and diet quality showed modest projected improvements. However, inadequate sleep is expected to worsen, which is an important finding given growing evidence linking poor sleep to cardiovascular risk.

Notably, disparities by race, ethnicity and age were apparent, with some groups facing both higher baseline risk and steeper projected growth. For example, Black women had the highest baseline prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and obesity, and researchers project they will experience some of the highest disease burdens. Hispanic and Asian women were projected to see large increases in certain risk factors. Younger women had lower current rates of disease but are expected to experience some of the steepest increases over time.

Overall, the findings suggest that without sustained prevention efforts, cardiovascular disease will affect a growing number of women in the U.S. in coming decades, with persistent and possibly widening disparities among different groups.

How Does This Apply to Real Life?

The most important takeaway from these projections is that cardiovascular disease is on the rise—however, it’s also largely preventable. While risk factors like age and genetics matter, many of the biggest drivers of risk are modifiable.

If you’re a woman looking to improve your heart health, here’s where to focus.

Eat a Heart-Healthy Diet

The American Heart Association highlights diet as one of Life’s Essential 8—and for good reason. Heart-healthy diet patterns—like the Mediterranean diet or the DASH diet—prioritize whole foods high in fiber, lean protein and healthy fats, along with colorful vegetables and fruits. Potassium is also crucial for healthy blood pressure levels, and most Americans aren’t getting enough. Incorporating potassium-rich foods like salmon, yogurt, avocados, potatoes and fruits can help you meet your needs.

Instead of chasing perfection, aim for consistency. Increasing fiber intake and cooking at home more often can help improve blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar over time.

Exercise Regularly

It’s recommended that adults get at least 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity exercise. And if 150 minutes sounds overwhelming, try breaking it into shorter increments. For example, 30 minutes of joyful movement five days a week, or even shorter 10- to 15-minute sessions throughout the day, can feel much more attainable. Moderate-intensity activities include brisk walking, water aerobics, dancing, gardening, tennis and biking.

The key is sustainability. Focus on choosing movement you genuinely enjoy so it becomes part of your routine, not a short-term effort.

Reduce Your High-Risk Behaviors

Smoking remains one of the strongest modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In fact, the American Heart Association recommends that you stop smoking, as quitting is one of the most impactful steps you can take for heart health.

Alcohol intake also matters. Reducing alcohol consumption—or choosing not to drink at all—may lower the risk for certain cardiovascular conditions.

Prioritize Sleep

Sleep is increasingly recognized as a critical component in improving and maintaining cardiovascular health. Inadequate or poor-quality sleep is linked to higher blood pressure, insulin resistance, stroke risk and atrial fibrillation.

Aim for seven to nine hours of consistent, quality sleep per night. Strategies such as reducing evening screen time, managing stress and keeping a regular sleep schedule can make a huge difference—especially for women navigating hormonal changes that can disrupt sleep.

Stay on Top of Preventive Care

Regular checkups (about every six months) allow you to monitor blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar and weight—often catching issues before they progress.

Additionally, talk to family members about your family medical history, if you haven’t already. If you have a family history of cardiovascular disease or risk factors, earlier or schedule more frequent screenings with a healthcare provider could be a good choice.

Our Expert Take

A recent scientific statement from the American Heart Association projects that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women will increase over the next 25 years if current trends continue. While population-level projections can feel overwhelming, they also reinforce something empowering: small, consistent lifestyle changes can add up over time and meaningfully change long-term risk for cardiovascular disease. Prevention doesn’t require perfection—it requires sustainability.