Shock to Mamata Banerjee’s TMC? BJP can form government in Bengal as soon as 5% votes slip – Survey

Kolkata. The political atmosphere in West Bengal regarding the 2026 assembly elections is very heated. The main contest in the elections to be held on 294 seats in the state is believed to be between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Mamata Banerjee is trying to return to power for the fourth consecutive time, while BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi has entered the fray with the aim of forming the government for the first time in Bengal.

5% vote swing can change the game

The most interesting aspect in political analyzes is the 5% vote swing. In the 2021 assembly elections, TMC had won about 48% votes and 215 seats, while BJP had won 77 seats with about 38% votes. Analysts believe that if this time only 5% of TMC’s votes go to BJP’s account, then the results may change on many seats. Especially in those seats where the victory-defeat margin was less last time, BJP can get a big advantage there. On the basis of this mathematics the party can reach the majority figure.

Closely contested seats are decisive

In 2021, many seats were won and lost by very small margins. There were dozens of seats where a difference of 5 to 10 percent votes decided the result. This is why this time both the parties are making strategies at the micro-level. Even a high-profile seat like Nandigram had shown how a small vote difference can change the fortunes of big leaders. In such a situation, small vote swings can have an impact on the entire election results.

BJP’s strategy: expansion and polarization

BJP looks more aggressive this time. The party has emphasized on strengthening its organization, raising issues of corruption and increasing votes through ideological polarization. However, the challenges before the party are no less. The lack of strong local faces at the state level and the image of an “outsider party” could hurt it. Apart from this, internal differences can also affect the strategy.

TMC’s strength: ground hold and plans

On the other hand, TMC’s biggest strength is its strong grassroots network and welfare schemes. The party’s hold is considered strong among women, rural voters and poor sections. But due to staying in power for a long time, allegations of anti-incumbency and corruption can become a challenge for him. Factionalism at the local level can also cause harm.