If you’re a team gasping for survival at the bottom of the table, the last thing you’d want is to play free-scoring Bayern Munich or RB Leipzig. Yet such is the fate of Wolfsburg and St. Pauli respectively on Saturday, a task they could be forgiven for feeling is sink-or-sink.
Indeed, the Bundesliga’s penultimate round of fixtures this weekend serves up a particularly tasty-looking hors d’oeuvre platter ahead of the Matchday 34 banquet.
Wolfsburg, in 16th place on 26 points, host champions Bayern. The Wolves have the worst home record in the division this season with just two victories and ten points in total from a possible 48 at the Volkswagen Arena.
Currently five points adrift of outright safety and with just six left on the table, Dieter Hecking’s side are running out of time. Securing the relegation play-off spot that comes with 16th would appear to be their most realistic option right now.
All is not lost, though. Last week’s 1-1 draw against UEFA Europa League semi-finalists Freiburg was the Wolves’ third straight league game without defeat, leaving Hecking in positive mood: “You can see that the team wants to play football and that they’re not your typical side battling relegation. They’re making progress.”
And they could be facing Bayern at the ideal time. Vincent Kompany’s men have conceded six goals in their last two league outings, and have had to come from behind against both Mainz (a 4-3 win) and Heidenheim (a 3-3 draw) to salvage positive results. It also remains to be seen how Bayern will react to their UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg against Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.
St. Pauli, level on points with Wolfsburg but with an inferior goal difference (-28 compared to -25), arguably have the tougher assignment on Saturday. Alexander Blessin’s men won’t have their own fans behind them as they travel to RB Leipzig, and they’ve only won twice on the road in 2025/26.
Furthermore, the home side are locked in a battle for Champions League qualification with Bayer Leverkusen, VfB Stuttgart and Hoffenheim, and will be more determined than ever after losing ground following a chastening 4-1 defeat against the former last week.
And unlike Wolfsburg, Pauli don’t have momentum on their side. Last weekend’s 2-1 home reverse against Mainz was their third loss in their last four. “We have to keep believing, it’s still all to play for,” said midfielder Jackson Irvine afterwards. “We have to keep that in mind and stay positive.”
Yet while both Wolfsburg and Pauli are trying to remain upbeat, it is their head-to-head meeting on the last day of the season that is set to prove decisive, with goal difference potentially playing a key role.
Especially as they are not the only ones with 16th place in their crosshairs. Bottom club Heidenheim may no longer be able to stay up outright, but they could still sneak into the play-off spot. They will need to win both remaining games to do so, though.
Not that that looks impossible. As Bayern coach Kompany put it ahead of last week’s match: “It’s ‘Frank Schmidt time’ again,” referring to the Heidenheim coach’s ability to rally his side and get results in the business end of the season.
Kompany wasn’t joking. Last week’s draw in Munich was the fifth time in their last six matches that they have earned at least a point (W2 D3 L1).
Currently three behind Wolfsburg and Pauli, Heidenheim are away at 14th-placed Cologne in an all-or-nothing encounter on Sunday: the Billy Goats themselves (32 points) are not set safe, but will be if they avoid defeat.
The same goes for Werder Bremen, the fifth team still circling the drop. Likewise on 32 points, Daniel Thioune’s charges are nearly safe. To get over the line, though, they must overcome sixth-placed Hoffenheim, who, as mentioned above, are locked in a high-stakes skirmish of their own for a Champions League place.
And with Bremen taking on Dortmund on the final day, Thioune and Co. will be keen to get the job done before then.
With so many fates hanging in the balance, the penultimate matchday could tilt the entire relegation picture – and beyond. Expect twists, turns and a weekend that sets the stage for a final day to remember.
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