The revision came in a recent report, after Vietnam’s economy grew by 8.18% in the first half, the highest rate in Southeast Asia and well above UOB’s earlier expectations.
The result reflected broad-based growth across the industrial, construction, services and agricultural sectors.
Manufacturing continued to be the key growth drivers, supported by surging global demand for AI, UOB said.
Foreign direct investment reached US$34.7 billion in the first six months, up 61%, and this reinforces the outlook that 2026 could become a record year for Vietnam in attracting FDI, the bank said.
Vietnam’s economy has shown remarkable resilience so far despite the shock from Middle East tensions, which will provide a solid foundation in the second half.”
UOB’s forecast is currently among the most optimistic projections from international organizations. On July 8, the Asian Development Bank also released an updated report forecasting Vietnam to be the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year at 7.2%.
Downtown HCMC, January 2025. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran |
Vietnam itself targets growth of at least 10% this year, and the government has outlined a scenario requiring 11.9% growth in the second half of the year.
UOB said it would monitor global developments, especially U.S. tariffs, expected to take effect in late July, which could add further pressure on global trade and affect Vietnam’s growth momentum.
The Vietnamese dong showed “exceptional resilience” in June despite broad-based weakness among Asian currencies, UOB said, maintaining its view that the VND will remain relatively stable, potentially strengthening against the dollar to 26,500 in the third quarter and 26,400 in the fourth.
UOB is the third largest lender by assets in Singapore, behind DBS Group and OCBC Bank.
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