Six-pointer with a lot on the line
VfL Wolfsburg (5-5-14, 17th) look to escape the relegation zone as they host Hamburger SV (6-8-10, 11th), who are just six points above them. The match is set for 15:30 (CET) on Saturday at Volkswagen Arena.
VFL WOLFSBURG
Following a brutal 0-4 defeat to VfB Stuttgart and with ten matches remaining in the 2025/26 season, VfL Wolfsburg (5-5-14, 17th) are in the relegation zone, hoping to avoid playing 2. Bundesliga football for the first time in three decades. Head coach Daniel Bauer is in a very difficult situation, with Florian Plettenberg reporting that this match could be “decisive”, a “test match” in a way.
Wolfsburg have a poor record at home this season, 2-3-7 with 26 goals conceded and a -9 goal differential; however, Hamburger SV have the third-worst away record in the German top-flight at an even worse 1-4-6 with 19 goals conceded and a -12 goal differential. The recent record of Die Wölfe at Volkswagen Arena has ultimately led to their lowest home attendance since the 2006/07 season (excluding the 2019/20 season, which had no crowds during the second half due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns).
Also benefitting Wolfsburg is the fact that they won the reverse meeting at Volksparkstadion in October, 1-0 on a goal in the fifteenth minute from Adam Daghim, assisted by Danish compatriot Christian Eriksen. That was the first competitive meeting between Wolfsburg and Hamburg since the latter was relegated in the 2017/18 season – back then, Hamburg went unbeaten in six matches against sides coached by the likes of Dieter Hecking, Andries Jonker, and Bruno Labbadia, dating back to December 2015 (3-3-0).
Team News
The list of VfL Wolfsburg injuries remains quite significant – however, all but one are projected to be completed by the end of March. Mattias Svanberg (unknown) and Patrick Wimmer (muscle) are both doubtful to start the match; Maximilian Arnold (groin) and Kevin Paredes (muscle) remain out for a few more weeks, likely until the end of the month.
Kilian Fischer (thigh), Joakim Mæhle (shoulder), Cleiton Santos (ankle), Jenson Seelt (knee), and Jonas Wind (hip) are all confirmed to be out for at least one more week, with the timetable for return currently being the third week of March. Rogério (knee/illness) and Pavao Pervan (ankle) are both set to return by the end of the month.
Bence Dárdai (cruciate ligament) is the only long-term injury for the club to manage, as he will be absent from training until late July.
Projected XI (3-5-2): Grabara – Koulierakis, Jenz, Adjetey – Belocian, Gerhardt, Souza, Eriksen, Bürger – Amoura, Pejčinović.
HAMBURGER SV
Hamburger SV (6-8-10, 11th) had a difficult run in late February, drawing with 1. FSV Mainz 05 and losing a pair of matches against RB Leipzig and Bayer 04 Leverkusen; however, Merlin Polzin’s side will look to bounce back by winning two six-pointers against Wolfsburg and 1. FC Köln in consecutive weeks.
HSV have the sixth-most shots on target (112) and the sixth-best shot to shot on target conversion rate (36.4%); Wolfsburg have the fifth-least (94) and are twelfth in the Bundesliga in shots to shots on target (33.9%).
Two things that will be notable to watch for Hamburg are the impact of the bench and their creativity in drawing fouls in the Wolfsburg half of the ground. HSV have drawn 296 fouls this season, the most in the Bundesliga, whereas Wolfsburg again have the fifth-least in the Bundesliga in this regard with 221.
Crosses from the wings will also be key, as HSV managed 414 in this current campaign, putting them closer to the mid-table in this category – 72 more than Wolfsburg, who are last in the Bundesliga.
Team News
Albert Grønbæk (thigh) will be out of the HSV lineup for at least one more week. Alexander Røssing (ankle) will follow with a return to the training ground approximately two weeks later. Nicolás Capaldo (abdomen) and Bakery Jatta (hamstring) are both set to return to action at the start of next month.
Projected XI (3-4-2-1): Fernandes – Torunarigha, Vušković, Elfadli – Muheim, Sambi, Remberg, Mikelbrencis – Hotels, Vieira – Königsdörffer.
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