Southeast Asia’s second most visited country reduces foreign tourists target to 30 million amid global uncertainties
Tourists take photos in front of the Patong Beach sign by the seafront on the southern Thai island of Phuket on Nov. 29, 2024. Photo by AFP
Thailand has revised down its tourism outlook for 2026 amid mounting geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
With 32.9 million international arrivals in 2025, Thailand ranked as Southeast Asia’s second most visited country after Malaysia, which received over 42 million visitors.
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the country now expects to receive between 30 – 34 million international visitors this year, down about 18% from its earlier target.
The revised projection is based on the assumption that tensions in the Middle East could ease within one to three months.
The downgrade reflects weakening demand in key long-haul markets, including the Middle East, Europe and the U.S., as well as constraints in flight capacity and continued volatility in global oil prices, which have affected travel sentiment.
Domestic tourism is also expected to see a slight decline, with the number of trips by Thai citizens projected at around 206 million, down 3% from the initial target.
Despite the less optimistic outlook, the tourism sector is still forecast to generate total revenue of approximately 2.58 trillion THB (US$79.2 billion).
Thapanee noted that shifting travel dynamics have prompted TAT to adjust its strategy towards a “value over volume” approach, focusing on increasing spending per trip rather than boosting visitor numbers.
The strategy includes developing higher-quality tourism products and experiences, strengthening messaging on value, safety and reliability, and leveraging digital platforms and technology to enhance competitiveness.
Tourism remained a key driver of Thailand’s economic growth in 2025, despite challenges from geopolitical instability and intensifying competition across Asia.
While visitor numbers have gradually recovered, revenue growth has lagged behind, reflecting more cautious spending by tourists. Thapanee said this trend underscores the need to improve overall travel experiences and encourage higher spending per visitor.
She expressed her confidence that the strategic shift will help shape a more sustainable development path for Thailand’s tourism sector in the years ahead.
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