Spain overtake France as favorites to win 2026 World Cup

The 1-0 victory lifted Spain’s title probability to 25.2%, according to a statistical model developed by Brazilian economist Bruno Imaizumi and the football analytics platform Gato Mestre.

France, which previously topped the rankings, now has a 25% chance of winning the tournament.

If both teams advance from the quarterfinals, they will meet in the semifinals.

France will face Morocco in the last eight, while Spain takes on Belgium, who eliminated host nation the United States in the Round of 16. Belgium are given a 6.8% chance of winning the title.

Argentina are ranked third with a 14% probability ahead of their Round of 16 match against Egypt. England follow at 10.8% and will face Norway in the quarterfinals.

According to the latest projections, Morocco have a 5% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Switzerland (3.9%), Colombia (2.6%) and Egypt (0.8%).

Spain are also the only team yet to concede a goal at the 2026 World Cup. After five matches, La Roja rank second in total shots, third in expected goals (xG), and leads the tournament in forcing turnovers.

Gato Mestre updates its projections after every round, using results from World Cup qualifying through the tournament itself. The model adjusts each team’s title probability as the competition progresses.

According to Imaizumi, the model simulates every match using factors including expected goals, FIFA rankings, squad values based on Transfermarkt data, and previous World Cup performances, combining measures of current form with historical strength.

Imaizumi, an economist specializing in statistics, data science and predictive modeling, works for Brazilian media group Grupo Globo. He has said his forecasting algorithm has outperformed the company’s football commentators and presenters in predicting results in Brazil’s top-flight league for six consecutive seasons.