Stock Market Strategy: How will this week be amid the decline, what should investors do, know the market forecast…

Stock Market Strategy: The atmosphere in the stock market looks very bad. There was a big fall in the market on Monday and before that on Friday also Nifty had closed much below its 20-Day EMA and 50-Day EMA.

Now Nifty is hovering around its 20-Week EMA, which is technically considered an important support. Apart from this, Nifty has also slipped below the trading range of December, due to which the market sentiment has become even more weak.

Important levels of Nifty and further danger

Talking about technical levels, the 100-Day Moving Average of Nifty is around 25,600, while the closing low of November is around 25,500. If the market does not recover from here and there is no bounce, then the next big support is considered to be around 25,250 on the 200-Day Moving Average.

A matter of special concern is that there is tremendous selling in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, due to which there is pressure on the entire market.

Fear increased due to heavy selling by FII

Market experts say that the selling of foreign investors i.e. FIIs in index futures has intensified. According to recent data, FIIs have sold about ₹3,769 crore in the cash market and ₹3,195 crore in index futures.

With this, their Net Short Position has increased to 92.5%. Interestingly, the last time FIIs were in such high short positions, there was a sharp recovery of about 1000 points in Nifty.

Global tension due to Trump vs Powell

The situation in America is also very tense. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said in a statement that the Trump administration has initiated a criminal investigation against him.

Trump alleges that the Fed is not reducing interest rates, hence this step has been taken. After this news, fear spread on Wall Street and panic also increased in the Global Markets.

Sharp rise in gold, silver and oil

The effect of this fear was that investors started running towards safe haven. Gold rose by about 2% to a new record of $4600, while silver rose by about 5%.

Brent Crude also crossed 63 dollars. At the same time, Dow Futures fell by about 200 points, which clearly shows that the global sentiment remains weak.

India-US relations and big signs of this week

The biggest factor for the market this week will be India-US Relations. US Ambassador Sergio Gore, who is considered close to Trump, is coming to India. Last week, relations between the two countries had soured after threats of 500% tariff and some controversial statements. Now it will be important to see whether this journey reduces stress or not.

Pressure on dollar-rupee and IT stocks

At present the Dollar-Rupee remains above 90, which is another matter of concern for the market. Due to weak rupee and global uncertainty, there is a lot of pressure on IT stocks. On top of this, the Earnings Season is also starting in full swing this week.

Big results coming this week

Today TCS and HCL Tech will declare their results, Infosys results will come on Wednesday. Reliance’s results will be out after the market closes on Friday and HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank will release their figures on Saturday. These companies have about 29.67% weightage in Nifty, which means their results can decide the direction of the entire market.

So what should investors do now?

At present the market sentiment is very negative, but the fundamentals still look strong. This means that investors are getting good shares at cheap prices. However, traders should respect the charts and trend, because the downward trend is not over yet.

The market is quite oversold at the moment, so a sharp bounceback can happen at any time. But if you cannot trade both ways, it is better to stay away from index trading and conserve your capital.

Damani’s formula and long-term thinking

Radhakishan Damani has a famous rule that if something worth 50 paise is available for 25 paise, then you should have 25 paise. That means when good shares are available cheap, then you should have money to invest. The strategy at this time is to make a list of fundamentally strong stocks and keep buying gradually on every dip.

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