Raw sugar prices continued to fall on Thursday, marking a fourth straight session of losses as global markets reacted to signals that India could export more sugar than previously planned. According to Bloomberg News, the extended decline represents the longest losing streak for raw sugar futures in nearly two months, driven largely by expectations of increased global supply from one of the world’s largest producers.
The most actively traded raw sugar contract in New York dropped as much as 2.5 percent, touching 14.39 cents per pound, its lowest level in almost five weeks. Last month, Indian authorities approved exports of 1.5 million tonnes of sugar for the current season in an effort to ease excess domestic inventories. On Thursday, India’s Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the government is now considering allowing additional shipments abroad to further reduce stockpiles. He also noted that officials are reviewing the possibility of raising the minimum sale price for sugar within the country.
India’s production data has reinforced expectations of ample supply. Output between October 1 and December 15 rose by 1.7 million tonnes compared to the same period last year, an increase of nearly 28 percent, according to figures from the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association. This sharp rise reflects improved growing conditions following last year’s weather disruptions.
The stronger output aligns with forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, which projects India’s sugar production to rise by 26 percent in the 2025 to 2026 crop year. According to the USDA, favorable weather conditions and expanded planting areas are driving the increase. The previous harvest had been weighed down by the El Niño weather pattern, which reduced yields across key growing regions.
Despite recent declines, broader market positioning suggests some traders are reassessing bearish bets. Sugar futures are down about 25 percent so far this year, with prices struggling to hold above 15 cents per pound due to ample supply and muted demand. According to Bloomberg News, Claudiu Covrig of Covrig Analytics said the market remains well supplied amid weak consumption trends. Meanwhile, data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed a reduction in net short speculative positions, signaling short covering, according to Mike McDougall of McDougall Global View.
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