Lamine Yamal (C) and his teammates celebrate after Spain beat England in the Euro 2024 final at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany, on July 14, 2024. Photo by Reuters |
While the small victory margin reflects the unpredictability of the newly expanded 48-team format, Spain stand out as the only country given a greater than 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, sitting comfortably at 52.1%.
Luis de la Fuente’s squad is also projected to have a 39% chance of making the semifinals and a 25.6% chance of reaching the final. Spain are put into Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, with Opta calculating a 75.3% probability of them topping the group.
Spain’s strength is fueled by a generation of talent currently hitting their peaks. Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal remains the team’s top star following his breakout performance at Euro 2024. The teenager enjoyed a great season, racking up 24 goals and 17 assists across all competitions.
The squad are further bolstered by the return of key midfielder Rodri from injury, alongside the consistent form of forwards Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal.
Following Spain are France with a 13% chance. Having reached the finals of the last two World Cups, Didier Deschamps’ side stayed strong thanks to their squad depth and tournament experience. England follow in third place at 11.2%, while Argentina are handed a 10.4% chance of successfully defending their crown. No other country broke the 10% threshold in Opta’s projections.
Portugal sit fifth on the list of contenders with a 7% chance of victory, carrying high expectations for captain Cristiano Ronaldo as he prepares for his sixth World Cup.
Ronaldo, who holds the men’s international record with 143 goals in 226 appearances since his 2003 debut, has guided Portugal to three major trophies, including Euro 2016 and the Nations League in 2019 and 2025, but has never won the World Cup.
The 41-year-old striker confirmed last year that the 2026 edition would mark his final world tournament appearance, according to CNN.
Five-time world champions Brazil enter the tournament under the guidance of Carlo Ancelotti. Looking to end the title drought extending back to 2002, Brazil boast a lethal attacking roster featuring Vinícius Jr., Raphinha and Matheus Cunha, alongside seasoned forward Neymar. The supercomputer projects Brazil’s semifinal chances at 22.1%, with a 6.6% overall chance of winning the tournament.
 |
Lionel Messi (C) and his teammates lift the World Cup trophy after the 2022 final. Photo by Reuters |
Dark horses and host nations’ chances
Germany, the Netherlands and Norway have emerged as the tournament’s notable dark horses. Germany are given a 5.1% chance of winning, followed by the Netherlands at 3.6% and Norway with 3.5%.
Norway turned heads during the qualifiers by netting 37 goals, led by Manchester City’s Erling Haaland, who tied the single-campaign qualifying record with 16 goals in eight matches.
Potential surprises also include 2024 Copa America runners-up Colombia, given a 2.1% title chance and Morocco at 1.9%. The North Africans, who shocked the world by reaching the semifinals in Qatar in 2022, remain the highest-rated African representative.
As for the three co-hosting nations, Opta views their knockout stage prospects favorably, though winning the cup remains unlikely. The U.S., managed by Mauricio Pochettino, are tipped as the strongest host contender, with a 32.8% chance to top Group D and a 1.2% chance at the title.
Mexico are given a strong 47.8% probability of winning Group A and a greater than 50% chance of reaching the Round of 16, though their ultimate championship odds sit at 1%. Meanwhile, Canada enters the tournament with a 42.7% chance of advancing beyond the group stage.
The 2026 World Cup, which features an extended 48-team format for the first time, will take place from June 11 to July 19.
Comments are closed.