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T20 World Cup 2026: How Team India Can Still Reach The Semifinals — All Qualification Scenarios Explained

By Samira Vishwas

After a heavy 76-run defeat to South Africa in their first Super 8 match, the Suryakumar Yadav-led side now find themselves under pressure. With a poor Net Run Rate and no points on the board, India cannot afford many more mistakes. India’s match against Zimbabwe will be extremely important for their chances of qualifying for the next round.

At the moment, both South Africa and the West Indies have 2 points each with strong Net Run Rates. India and Zimbabwe are yet to open their account and both have a negative NRR. The two matches on Thursday — South Africa vs West Indies in Ahmedabad and India vs Zimbabwe in Chennai — will decide how the group shapes up.

Super Eights, Group 1 Points Table so Far

1. West Indies (2 points, 1 match, NRR +5.350)

2. South Africa (2 points, 1 match, NRR +3.800)

3. India (0 points, 1 match, NRR -3.800)

4. Zimbabwe (0 points, 1 match, NRR -5.350)

Best-Case Scenario for India

If South Africa beats West Indies and India defeats Zimbabwe, South Africa will move to 4 points and almost confirm their semi-final spot. India and the West Indies will both have 2 points going into their final group match against each other.

In that situation, it becomes very simple for India to beat the West Indies in the last match, and they will qualify for the semi-finals. Net Run Rate will not matter if India wins that game.

If the West Indies Beat South Africa

If the West Indies win and India also beat Zimbabwe, then the West Indies will have 4 points, while India and South Africa will have 2 points each.

In this case, India must beat the West Indies in their final match. However, because India’s Net Run Rate is currently very poor, they may need a big win. They will also hope that Zimbabwe either beats South Africa or loses by a very small margin. A big South Africa win in that match could hurt India’s chances due to NRR.

If India loses to Zimbabwe

If India loses to Zimbabwe, their chances become very slim. They would then need South Africa to win both their remaining matches. India would also need to beat the West Indies by a massive margin. In that situation, three teams could finish on 2 points, and qualification would depend on Net Run Rate. In short, India must win their remaining matches — and win well — to stay in control of their destiny.

Also Read: T20 World Cup 2026: Can Pakistan Qualify For Semi-Finals After New Zealand’s 61-Run Victory Over Sri Lanka? Scenarios Explained

Shubham Madaan

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