ICC Men’s t20 world cup Pakistan’s hopes in 2026 were almost extinguished, but a news from Colombo changed the equation of the tournament. By defeating New Zealand, England not only secured their semi-final ticket but also opened the way for Pakistan. Now everyone’s eyes are on the match to be held in Pallekele, where not just a win, but a ‘big win’ will write the fate of Pakistan.
England is on top in Super 8 Group 2 with six points from three matches. New Zealand are in second place with three points and a strong net run rate of +1.390. Pakistan is at third position with one point in two matches and a net run rate of -0.461. This net run rate is now the real story. Even if the points are tied, the decision will be based on run rate – and currently Pakistan is far behind in this race.
65 run formula: What is the password of the semi-finals?
Pakistan will have to defeat Sri Lanka by at least 65 runs in its last Super 8 match. The other way is that if Sri Lanka bats first, then Pakistan should chase the target and achieve it within 13 overs. If this happens, Pakistan will also have three points – equal to New Zealand. But due to better net run rate, Pakistan can directly reach the semi-finals.
What could be the strategy?
In an ideal situation, Pakistan would like to restrict Sri Lanka to around 100-110 runs. After this, it will be necessary to start fast, bat aggressively in the powerplay and maintain the run pace in the middle overs. This is not just a match of victory, but of “quick victory”. Every dot ball, every four-six and every wicket will determine the distance to the semi-finals.
Will Rain become the villain?
The match will be played at Pallekele International Cricket Stadium. According to the meteorological department, there is no possibility of rain. It may be cloudy, but there is no danger of rain on the match. This is a relief news for Pakistan, because if the match was washed out, the equation could have changed completely.
Sri Lanka’s situation: can they surprise?
Sri Lanka have suffered three consecutive defeats in this Super 8 stage – against Zimbabwe, England and New Zealand. However, in such circumstances the host team has nothing to lose. They can use all their might to stop Pakistan.
Who has more pressure?
On paper the pressure is on Pakistan. They have to play not just a good game, but a perfect game. The bowlers will have to give initial blows and the batsmen will have to take risks and score runs quickly. Because with one small mistake New Zealand is certain to reach the semi-finals.
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