Opinion Poll: Big upset in Tamil Nadu, close fight in Kerala; Know each and every figure of opinion poll

Tamilnadu Assembly Elections Opinion Poll: The Election Commission on Sunday announced the dates for the assembly elections of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Voting will be held in one phase in both the states. Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar told in the press conference that votes will be cast in Kerala on April 9 and Tamil Nadu on April 23, while counting of votes in both the states will take place on May 4. The Election Commission has completed its preparations regarding this.

With the announcement of the dates of assembly elections, the opinion poll of IANS-Materize has come out, in which the opinion of the people of both the states has been taken regarding whose government will be formed in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Regional parties continue to dominate

Regional parties continue to dominate both the southern states, but new contenders seem to be challenging their supremacy. TVK led by actor-turned-politician Vijay seems to be attracting a large section of voters, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to get double digit votes in Kerala. However, this is not expected to have any significant impact on the election results.

Big advantage for BJP in Tamil Nadu

According to IANS-Materize opinion poll, ‘Mission BJP’ Looks to be getting huge benefits. According to opinion polls, a change of power is expected in the southern state. This time All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) coalition government can be formed. It also includes BJP as a major ally, while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance, which also includes Congress, is expected to be out of power.

Who gets how many seats in Tamil Nadu?

According to the opinion poll of IANS-Materize, if we talk about 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, then the AIADMK alliance can get 114 to 127 seats. At the same time, the ruling party DMK alliance can get 104 to 114 seats. At the same time, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s new political party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) can get 6 to 12 seats in its first election, while other parties are expected to get 1 to 6 seats.

If we talk about vote sharing as per the alliances in Tamil Nadu, then AIADMK is expected to get 39 to 40 percent votes, DMK is expected to get 37 to 38 percent votes and TVK is expected to get 14 to 15 percent votes. Other parties may get 10 to 12 percent votes.

Chennai DMK stronghold

AIADMK’s lead over DMK remains the same in all regions except western and central regions. For DMK, Chennai region remains its stronghold, where it seems to be getting 7-8 per cent more vote share than its main rival and is seen winning the largest share of the 37 seats in the region.

Close competition in Kerala

A close contest is being witnessed in Kerala between the two major alliances Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF). However, the Left-led alliance may have an upper hand over the Congress-led alliance.

With whom are the people in Kerala?

According to the IANS-Materize survey, LDF’s performance is expected to be slightly better, as UDF is not seen challenging its lead, which will maintain the current situation. LDF is expected to get 42-43 percent vote share, which may give it 61-71 seats. At the same time, UDF is expected to get 41-42 percent vote share, due to which its number of seats can remain between 58-69.

Also read: Bengal Pre Election Survey: Whose government is this time in Bengal? Opinion poll has given the answer, know who will get the shock

Ruling coalition strong in Kerala

led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has emerged as a strong force in the state, but not strong enough to have any role in forming the government. According to opinion polls, NDA seems to be making deep inroads in the southern state. It is expected to get around 12-13 percent vote share, but may get only 2 seats. The majority mark in the 140-member assembly is 71 seats, and the ruling coalition appears to be in a completely strong position.