For a long time, two Dravidian parties – DMK and AIADMK – dominated the politics of Tamil Nadu. Governments kept changing, alliances kept forming and breaking and leaders kept coming and going, but the political structure remained almost the same. Amidst this stable system, actor turned leader Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) Entered. What was earlier thought to be just star power, has now become the reason for a major change in the politics of Tamil Nadu.
The election results gave a clear indication. TVK won 108 seats, just 10 short of the majority. On the other hand, DMK suffered huge losses and AIADMK also could not regain its lost ground.
How did Vijay cross the majority mark?
The public voted in favor of change. After a few days of political turmoil and manipulation, Vijay’s party crossed the majority mark with the support of Congress, Left, VCK and IUML. Now he has the support of 120 MLAs and he is preparing to become the Chief Minister.
The real story started after the election results. The path to power in politics is determined not only by winning elections but by the strategy of forming the government. Uneasiness increased in the AIADMK camp after the results. On the night of 4th May, continuous meetings of senior leaders were held. Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) quickly understood that the structure of traditional politics was changing.
If Vijay comes to power, the old era of DMK-AIADMK may end. Meanwhile, reports started coming in the political circles that contacts have started between the opposing parties. It was told that EPS tried to talk to DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin. He also personally expressed grief over the defeat of MK Stalin.
The sudden closeness between DMK and AIADMK, which were staunch rivals for years, surprised everyone. It was even said that both the parties could come together to stop Vijay. Differences emerged on this issue even within the DMK. Some leaders felt that supporting AIADMK could be strategically correct, while other leaders opposed it and said that the very identity of the party was against AIADMK.
Dissatisfaction started increasing within AIADMK also. There was news about senior leader C Shanmugam that he was trying to take some MLAs to Vijay’s side. In this period the role of every MLA became important. EPS reached a resort in Puducherry, where about 30 MLAs were staying. There he tried to maintain unity in the party and hinted that “good news” may come soon. However, the possibility of a split in the party still remains.
Meanwhile, another big revelation came to light. Left leader MA Baby said that DMK had considered the possibility of an alliance with AIADMK and had also sought support from the Left.
This was shocking for the general public. Parties that had played politics against each other for decades were now considering coming together to stop a new political player.
How did Congress change the whole game?
But meanwhile Congress changed the game. When the anti-Vijay alliance was being discussed, Congress announced its support to TVK. Its five MLAs came with Vijay. After this, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge also contacted Left leaders.
After this decision the political equations changed rapidly. TVK ignored AIADMK’s proposals and focused on gathering support from VCK and other smaller parties. The race to reach the majority of 118 intensified. Now the question is arising whether Vijay’s government will be able to survive?
Will Vijay’s government be able to survive?
After the support of VCK and IUML, TVK has the support of 120 MLAs, which is slightly more than the majority. This situation can be challenging to keep the government stable. Many TVK MLAs have been elected for the first time and Vijay does not have administrative experience. Left parties will not join the government and will provide support from outside.
Congress has 5 MLAs, while VCK and IUML have 2-2 MLAs. In such a situation, the importance of every vote increases. Apart from this, the left parties are already inclined towards DMK, due to which DMK’s influence can remain even while sitting in opposition.
For this reason, it is believed that Vijay’s government may remain under constant pressure and there may also be a possibility of political instability. But this uncertainty makes this entire incident historic. Because for the first time the traditional structure of Tamil Nadu politics seems to be breaking. Old equations are changing and the state is entering a new political era.
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