That one turning point in the politics of Thakurdwara, which changed the electoral equations, will it be repeated in 2027?

The political mood of Western UP has always been very interesting and unpredictable in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. Every assembly seat here tells a different story in itself. One such very popular and politically sensitive seat is Thakurdwara assembly of Moradabad district. This seat has seen many major political ups and downs in the last two decades. Sometimes the Congress used to rule here, sometimes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had saffron rule, and sometimes the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) surprised everyone and won.

But, a question often keeps circulating in the political circles that what was the turning point which changed the entire electoral geography and history of Thakurdwara? The figures bear witness that the one who showed a new path to the politics of Thakurdwara was none other than the Thakurdwara Assembly by-election of 2014. In fact, after this one election, the old tradition prevailing on this seat completely changed and a new era of politics began.

From 2002 to 2012: When power did not rest in the hands of any one person

If we look at the data from 2002 to 2012, it becomes clear that the people of Thakurdwara did not stay with any one party for long. In the 2002 assembly elections, senior BJP leader Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar had won from here. But after five years i.e. in 2007, the public mood changed and BSP’s Vijay Kumar Yadav reached the assembly after being elected as MLA. After this, the equations changed again in the 2012 elections and Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar returned again on the BJP ticket. In these ten years, no political party was able to establish its permanent base in Thakurdwara. The equations collapsed like a house of cards every five years.

That turning point of 2014 and the increasing dominance of SP

Actually the real story starts from the year 2014. In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar reached the country’s Parliament after being elected as MP, due to which the Thakurdwara assembly seat became vacant. What happened after this surprised everyone. In the by-election held on this seat, Nawab Jaan of Samajwadi Party (SP) registered a historic victory. Initially, political pundits considered it to be just an ordinary by-election going in favor of the ruling party. But, the coming times proved that it was not just a by-election victory, rather Thakurdwara Assembly by-election had become the biggest ‘turning point’ of Thakurdwara politics. It is from here that SP has such a strong foothold on this seat that its opponents have not been able to shake it till date.

Why did the electoral mathematics change and how were the opponents marginalized?

Political analysts believe that after 2014, the social engineering formula of Thakurdwara completely changed. There were mainly three big reasons behind this:

• One-sided polarization of Muslim votes: Before 2014, the Muslim voters of Thakurdwara were divided between Congress, BSP and independents. But after this by-election, a large part of the Muslim vote bank completely rallied to the side of Samajwadi Party.
• Fall of Congress: Thakurdwara was once considered a strong bastion of Congress, but after 2014, the party’s cadre and traditional vote bank completely slipped, which directly benefited SP.
• Declining strength of BSP: The BSP, which had formed the government in 2007, gradually moved out of the main contest and the fight in Thakurdwara turned into a direct contest between SP versus BJP.

Nawab Jaan’s hat-trick changed history

This was no coincidence, rather the two major assembly elections held after 2014 confirmed this. In the year 2017, when there was a strong ‘Modi wave’ going on in the entire Uttar Pradesh and BJP was forming a unilateral government, even then SP’s Nawab Jaan saved his seat in Thakurdwara. After this, Nawab Jaan continued the winning streak in the 2022 elections and became MLA for the third consecutive time. Thakurdwara Assembly by-election of 2014, elections of 2017 and then victory in 2022 – this hat-trick made it clear that Thakurdwara has now become an impenetrable fort of SP.

Will history reverse again in 2027?

Now the biggest question is whether the upcoming 2027 assembly elections will prove to be the second big turning point for Thakurdwara? According to local people, on one hand SP is preparing to deal with anti-wave and anti-incumbency factor, while on the other hand BJP’s vote share is getting stronger with every election. There is sure to be a tussle between the two camps regarding the ticket also. While in SP, faces like Nawab Jaan as well as Mujahid Ali and Engineer Iqbal are said to be in the race, on behalf of BJP, Amit Chauhan and Ajay Pratap Singh are presenting a strong claim. It will be interesting to see whether a new history like 2014 is written in 2027 or whether SP’s fort remains intact.