As the world waited with bated breath for January 20 — the day Donald Trump assumed office as the 47th President of the United States — a large section of aspirational young Indians found themselves quaking in their boots, facing uncertainty over US visa policies.
Trump and his supporters, who fervently championed the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), had identified immigrants as their primary adversary, targeting them during the presidential campaign.
However, a distinction was made between legal and illegal immigrants.
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Nuanced discussion
Once Trump was elected, the discussion on immigration became more nuanced. While the President-elect and his high-profile allies, including Elon Musk of Tesla, supported a liberal stance on H-1B visas for highly qualified professionals, MAGA backers held different views.
They perceived all immigrants as “thieves” who were “stealing” jobs from American natives — primarily white Americans in their worldview.
The issue sparked widespread concern in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Chennai — the top three IT hubs in India. These cities dominate the country’s IT and Business Process Management (BPM) sectors.
The recruitment head of an IT company in Electronic Ciţ̧y̧, Bengaluru, who did not want to be named, told The Federal: “The H-1B visa process has become a significant hurdle for the IT industry. Many of our employees, who are crucial for client-facing roles in the US, face visa delays or denials. This not only disrupts project timelines but also impacts our global competitiveness”.
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Significant sector
IT exports contribute nearly 8 per cent of India’s GDP, generating over $250 billion in revenue as of 2023, with IT services accounting for 51 per cent of this.
At least 3 million people are employed in the IT sector across these cities, with many more working abroad, some on H-1B visas. India secures the lion’s share — 70 per cent — of H-1B visas issued by the US, compared to China’s 12 per cent.
Thus, Indians are particularly apprehensive about potential restrictions on H-1B visas.
An HR professional with an IT company in Bengaluru’s JP Nagar told The Federal that the uncertainty and limitations of the H1B visa programme are significantly affecting its workforce planning. “Many of our talented employees face prolonged delays or outright rejections, which hinders our ability to deploy skilled professionals to our US-based projects. This impacts both business growth and employee morale,” he added.
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Reduced dependency
Over time, Indian IT giants like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro have reduced their dependency on H-1B visas as the US tightened visa conditions.
These companies have cut their H-1B visa requirements by 24–30 per cent, favouring “near-shoring” over “off-shoring.” Meanwhile, several American companies, including Amazon, continue to seek more H-1B visas to bring skilled Indian professionals to the US.
A senior manager with an IT solutions firm, which has offices in the US and Bengaluru, told The Federa̧̧l that the H-1B visa challenges have created a bottleneck for talent mobility.
“While we continue to hire and train locally, the inability to send our employees to the US for key projects is a growing concern. It’s not just a business issue — it’s a setback for professional growth and knowledge exchange,” she said.
The H-1B visa remains popular among Indians, as it provides higher salaries and a clear pathway to US permanent residency. Designed to attract global talent, the programme has been a resounding success.
Optimists believe it is unlikely to be eliminated, though restrictions may increase.
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Pressure on students
Approximately 1.5 million Indian immigrants work in the US, with many entering on F-1 (student) visas. Currently, 300,000 Indian students are studying in the US, primarily from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.
Aditi (name changed), a Chennai student on an Optional Practical Training (OPT) visa — a form of work authorisation — is anxious, having applied for an H-1B visa after missing out in last year’s lottery. She faces the added pressure of repaying a significant student loan.
Students in Chennai on holiday in January were advised by their institutions to return to the US before January 20. Many who remained on OPT visas after exhausting their F-1 visas are worried about further restrictions. An OPT visa allows students to work for three years, after which they can pursue a green card. In 2023, OPT visa issuances to Indians rose by 41 per cent compared to the previous year.
Telugu immigrants anxious
The Telugu-speaking population in the US, numbering around 1.2 million, is significant. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana send the highest number of students to the US, at 60,000-70,000 arriving annually. About 10,000 obtain H-1B visas, and 80 per cent of whom work in IT.
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While 1 million Indians benefit from H-1B visas, concerns persist for the estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants in the US. Among them, at least 17,000 face deportation after exhausting legal options, posing a potential embarrassment for India.
Although Trump’s administration may crack down on illegal immigration, hopes remain that the H-1B visa regime will remain intact, as the US relies on global talent to maintain its innovative edge, particularly in competition with China.
Indian professionals, known for their hard work and cost efficiency, are highly valued in this context.
Jobs for Americans
MAGA’s “America First” agenda, however, seeks to prioritise jobs for American workers, particularly in the Rust Belt (area in the US which was once dominated by manufacturing, steelmaking and coal production), where unemployment is rampant among white Americans.
If Bengaluru is India’s Silicon Valley, Chennai is its SaaS (Software as a Service) capital. Indian companies remain confident about sustaining export earnings despite visa challenges, with Global Capacity Centres (GCCs) gaining traction. These centres provide cutting-edge technologies, skilled engineers, and IT services, supporting global businesses. Tamil Nadu is actively establishing GCCs to boost this sector.
India could turn the visa crisis into an opportunity, welcoming back its highly qualified engineers, doctors, and scientists to strengthen domestic industries. This could help India capitalise on its demographic dividend, which is expected to last only a few more decades.
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