The political chessboard for Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2027 has already started being laid. There is intense activity in the political circles from Lucknow to Delhi. A big fight is brewing behind the scenes regarding seat sharing between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies. Many regional satraps and top leaders of major parties included in the NDA are camping in Delhi these days. These leaders are having continuous secret meetings and marathon brainstorming with the central leadership of BJP.
According to the news coming from the sources, this time a completely new and shocking formula is being prepared for the distribution of seats. Under this new plan, BJP is seriously considering giving two to three more seats to its major allies than last time. This time, the BJP high command is taking very careful steps to keep the alliance unbroken and to avoid any kind of resentment.
Camp in Delhi and realize one’s own strength
The political temperature in Delhi has been rising for the last few weeks. Leaders of NDA allies are visiting the offices of Union ministers and senior officials of the BJP organization. In this round of meetings, the allies are citing their political strength, their specific caste vote bank and the loyal role played during the last Lok Sabha elections. On this basis, they are demanding a bigger and better share in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, BJP is also working on a strategy to take its allies along, sensing the ground reality.
That performance of 2022, which has now become the basis of bargaining
To understand this new mathematics of seats, it is very important to look at the data of the 2022 assembly elections. In that election, Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal (Sonelal) had got 17 seats, out of which the party performed brilliantly and won 12 seats. Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party had tried its luck on 10 seats and won 6 seats, although some of its candidates also fought on the BJP symbol.
At the same time, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (Subhashpa) had then captured 6 out of 19 seats in alliance with the Samajwadi Party. Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) also fought with SP on 33 seats and won 8 seats. Now, since both SubhaSP and RLD have switched sides to BJP, they are expecting a bigger share as per their current political status.
What is this new seat sharing formula of BJP?
BJP insiders say that this time the distribution of seats is not going to be done on the basis of any old pattern or mere numerical strength. This time the scale will be decided by looking at ‘winnability’ and social engineering i.e. social equations. There are heated discussions that Apna Dal, Nishad Party and Subhaspa may be given two or three more seats than their previous seats. Along with this, consideration is also going on to give a respectable and big number to Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the political arena of Western Uttar Pradesh.
BJP’s Chanakya policy of fighting on the lotus symbol
A special strategy of BJP leadership is also coming to the fore in this entire plan. BJP believes that in many rural and urban areas of UP, the election symbol of ‘Lotus’ in itself increases the guarantee of the candidate’s victory. Keeping this in mind, BJP can offer big faces of some allies to contest elections on their own party symbol i.e. lotus symbol. BJP hopes that this will not scatter the votes of the alliance here and there and will help in ensuring victory on the seats.
A choice not to save reputation, but to unite the social fabric.
According to experts, this 2027 assembly election is not just a means for BJP to return to power, but it is a big test to keep the fort of its social equations strong. Apna Dal is being considered very important for Kurmi vote bank in UP, Nishad Party for Nishad and Mallah community, SubhaSP for Rajbhar votes and RLD is being considered very important to keep Jat voters simple in Jatland of Western UP. BJP does not want to loose its hold in all these sections, hence full political importance is being given to the allies.
Who is staking his strong claim in which area?
If we look at the map of UP, the claim of Apna Dal and SubhaSP is considered to be the strongest in Purvanchal area. At the same time, Nishad Party is presenting its strong claim on the seats of Gorakhpur-Basti division and its surrounding districts. On the other hand, in the Jat belt of western Uttar Pradesh, RLD is trying to win as many seats as possible in the areas of its influence. BJP’s think tank is trying to fit its allies in these areas.
The central leadership of BJP does not want to take the risk of angering any ally at this time. Taking lessons from the sweet and sour experiences of the last Lok Sabha elections, the party wants to enter the grand contest of 2027 with a rock-solid and strong NDA. This is the reason why BJP is following the path of showing flexibility in seat distribution and giving full political respect to its allies.
Now everyone’s eyes are on the final formula.
Even though no final official seal has been given yet on this major distribution of seats, the closed-door meetings of Delhi and the increasing running of leaders have made it clear that a new and shocking mathematics is being written within the NDA before the 2027 war. In the coming few months, it will become completely clear which party will win how many seats in this biggest election riot of Uttar Pradesh.
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