India wakes up today (May 4) to what could be the most seismic state election results in a generation. Four states—Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Assam—and the Union Territory of Puducherry go to the count, and if even half the exit poll predictions hold, the political landscape that India has known for a decade could look unrecognisable by evening.
Tamil Nadu: Vijay disruption?
For months, the question in Tamil Nadu was not whether MK Stalin would return, but by how much. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), riding a wave of welfare schemes, administrative confidence, and Stalin’s steady image, seemed destined to become the first party to win back-to-back majorities in the state in decades. That was the consensus. Then came the exit polls.
Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam, the party that most political observers dismissed as a vote-cutter, a sideshow, emerged as perhaps the story of this election cycle. Axis My India’s stunning prediction, over 30 per cent vote share and roughly 120 seats in the 234-seat assembly for TVK, has turned the entire narrative on its head. A party that had never contested an election before is now being spoken of as a potential government-in-waiting.
If the count validates even a fraction of that prediction, it would mark one of the most extraordinary political debuts in Indian electoral history.
Puducherry: No upset expected
In the 30-seat union territory of Puducherry, the contest has been relatively quieter, with the NDA and Congress-led alliance trading predictable blows. The outcome here is unlikely to shake the national narrative, but in a day of tight margins, even a small swing can carry symbolic weight.
Kerala: Last Left fortress
Kerala’s 140 seats carry enormous ideological stakes. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had set out to do what no front had done before: Win a third consecutive term. The LDF’s 2021 victory with 99 seats was already historic. But the exit polls have turned that ambition into a cliff-hanger. The dominant prediction now is a UDF resurgence, with Congress poised to return to power in Thiruvananthapuram after a decade in the wilderness.
If that happens, it would not merely be a change of government. It would mean the Left loses one of its last remaining strongholds in India.
West Bengal: Mamata’s toughest fight
No election in this cycle has generated more anticipation, or anxiety, than West Bengal’s 294-seat battle. Mamata Banerjee has governed the state since 2011, surviving wave after wave of BJP challenges with a combination of fierce street politics, welfare populism, and an unmatched organisational machine.
This time, the exit polls are saying something different. The NDA, which has never held power in Bengal, is being tipped to cross the majority mark, a prediction that, if true, would end one of the most remarkable political journeys in modern Indian history.
The election day itself was unusually calm by Bengal’s standards: No fatal clashes, no curfews, no torched party offices. But with the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls leaving 27 lakh voters in a limbo, and Trinamool Congress’s repeated run-ins with the Election Commission, can any verdict be acceptable for the people?
Assam: Consistent story
In Assam’s 126-seat assembly, the NDA goes in as heavy favourite and is widely expected to emerge as one. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has consolidated the BJP’s hold on the state methodically, and the exit polls have echoed that dominance. Barring a dramatic reversal, Assam will likely deliver the evening’s most predictable result, though in a day this volatile, even certainties bear watching.
As the counting begins, follow our live updates below:
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