If a hung assembly is formed, what option will TMC-BJP have? What will Modi and Mamta do for majority, know everything

West Bengal Hung Assembly Chance: Everyone is eagerly waiting for the results of West Bengal Assembly elections. Almost all the exit polls based on Bengal election results have predicted a close contest this time between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the main opposition party BJP. This time there is no indication of unilateral victory of any one party in all the exit polls. This time the picture of a very tough and balanced fight is visible.

In almost all the major surveys, the contest seems to be so tough that the majority figure is around 148 and it has become a direct contest between the two parties TMC and BJP. The situation is such that the fluctuations of just 5 to 10 seats are going to decide the power of the state.

What are the exit polls saying?

The trends of most exit polls show that this time the election contest in Bengal has become completely between two parties. On one side is the ruling TMC, while on the other is the opposition BJP, which has been continuously trying to strengthen its hold in the state in the last few years.

Let us tell you that the Matrice survey conducted for ABP has estimated that BJP will get 146 to 161 seats, while TMC can get 125 to 140 seats. If the BJP stops at the lowest level of the estimate i.e. 146 seats, then it will fall short of the majority and a situation of ‘hung assembly’ may arise in the state.

Similarly, data from another survey agency PMARQ also shows that the contest will be close. In this survey, BJP is estimated to get 150 to 175 seats while TMC is estimated to get 118 to 138 seats. However, here too the BJP’s lower figure (150) is only 2 seats more than the majority, which shows that the mandate may be very fragile.

If we look at all these exit polls, one thing is clear that the possibility of a ‘hung assembly’ in Bengal is very strong. Most projections give BJP between 140-160 seats and TMC between 120-140 seats. That means both the parties are close to majority, but do not seem to be much above that. Let us tell you that exit polls are only indications and many times they prove to be completely opposite to the actual results.

What will happen if a hung assembly is formed?

If such a situation arises that no party could cross the mark of 148 seats, then the role of the Governor becomes important in this matter. Usually, the largest party is given a chance to form the government by the Governor.

File photo of the Assembly (Image- Social Media)

If the BJP emerges as the largest party in the state but falls short of a majority, it will have to garner support from smaller parties and independent MLAs. At the same time, TMC may also have to seek support from Congress and Left parties. Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge has already indicated that the party will decide on its stand if necessary.

Let us tell you that after forming the government, any party or alliance will have to prove its majority in the Assembly. If no government is able to muster a majority, then there may be a possibility of imposition of President’s rule or re-election, although such a situation rarely occurs.

Why are the elections different this time?

Bengal elections this time are considered different in many ways compared to before. The biggest change is that this time the contest has completely become TMC versus BJP. The anti-incumbency votes are divided among many small parties, due to which the main fight has been limited between the two parties. Apart from this, more than 92 percent voting this time shows that there was great enthusiasm among the voters regarding the elections and both the parties have done tremendous mobilization at the grassroots level.

Bengal Elections (Image- Social Media)

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If the BJP emerges as the largest party but falls short of a majority, it will need allies, which will give its government limited control. On the other hand, if TMC becomes a big party and remains away from majority, then it will be a test of opposition unity. If Congress and Left parties support TMC, it can return to power despite being behind. Overall, this time the elections in West Bengal have not become a game of mere victory and defeat, but of very subtle mathematics and political manipulation, where the picture will not be completely clear till the final results come.